FanGraphs.com has a large amount of stats from the past and present. It also has projections from various sources for the 2010 season. Many have been using these projections to talk about the season many fantasy players will have or how teams will do. One of the projection systems used is called the "CHONE" projection system, which is done by Sean Smith. It is a respected system that has been around for a few years. Another new system this year is the "Fans" system, whereby users of the site were able to submit their expectations for the season. The system will test out the theory that the average of the group will be closest to the right answer. There are plenty of objections and things possibly wrong with it, but it is still interesting to explore. For example of all the projections, look at this page for the Chase Utley stats and projections.
I want to look at possible prop bets for the 2010 season and see if these projection systems point out any worthwhile bets. I took the prop bets from SportsBook.com and put them into excel with the projections to compare the predictions. There are two separate sheets in the file, one for pitcher prop bets and one for hitter prop bets. There are 3 main stats I'm including:
"Sportsbook Amount" - which is the Over/Under amount for each prop bet.
"Chone Projection" - which is the amount the Chone system predicts.
"Fan Projection" - which is the amount the Fan system predicts.
I took the average of the Chone and Fan systems, which may or may not be useful since most of the fan predictions seem to be a bit high.
Finally, the other columns are percentage differences between each category.
I sorted the column by the largest percent difference between the Prop amount and the average amount.
Monday, March 29, 2010
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Sweet 16 Betting Lines
All the Thursday games.
(1) Syracuse vs (5) Butler - 7:07pm
(2) West Virginia vs (11) Washington - 7:27pm
(2) Kansas State vs (6) Xavier - 9:37pm
(1) Kentucky vs (12) Cornell - 9:57pm
All the Friday Game
(2) Ohio State vs (6) Tennessee - 7:07pm
(3) Baylor vs (10) St. Mary's - 7:27pm
(5) Michigan State vs (9) Northern Iowa - 9:37pm
(1) Duke vs (4) Purdue - 9:57pm
The second set of games each day will probably start later than above, but the first games will start at the time listed. Get your bets in on time.
Let's look at the lines:
Spread - Favorite Team (Avg PPG) (Moneyline) - Underdog (Avg PPG) (Moneyline) - Total - Notes about NCAA tournament
6 - Syracuse (81.6) (-270) vs Butler (69.8) (+230) - 138.5 - Syracuse ATS W both games
4 - West Virginia (72.9) (-190) vs Washington (79.9) (+165) - 142 - WVU ATS W and Total Under both games.
4.5 - Kansas State (79.8) (-220) vs Xavier (79.3) (+180) - 153.5 - KState ATS W and Total Under both games.
8.5 - Kentucky (80.1) (-500) vs Cornell (75.8) (+400) - 147 - Kent ATS W and Total Over both games
4.5 - Ohio State (74.1) (-210) vs Tennessee (73.6) (+175) - 134 -
4.5 - Baylor (77.3) (-200) vs St. Mary's (79.4) (+170) -145 -
1 - Michigan State (72.9) (N/A) vs Northern Iowa (63.6) (N/A) - 121 -
8 - Duke (77.6) (-410) vs Purdue (70.9) (+325) - 129.5 - Duke ATS W and Total Under both games
More info:
-If you like Cornell, bet early. The line started higher and is climbing down. The public is jumping on Cornell's bandwagon. Most expect Kentucky to win this game and Cornell to cover.
-The WVU line will change tomorrow with news of Truck Byrant's broken ankle and for good reason. Many have pointed to WVU not having a great true point guard and now they'll be saying even more about that. But as the John gasaway at Basketball Prospectus have mentioned, it hasn't affected WVU and they control the ball well. If you still believe WVU will stay true to that then wait because the line is going to get smaller.
-Yes, Kalin Lucas is definitely out and yes that matters. You decide how much it matters, the guys making the lines have thought about this, you're not tricking them.
-Don't try to tease anything. If you don't like the spread, then take the moneyline. Play single games by themselves.
For all your stats needs, go here: statsheet.com/mcb
For all your betting line trends, go here: covers.com (click around there, lots of interesting info)
To make all your bets...well that's illegal, check out covers.com to see where to bet.
What my choices are right now:
-Syracuse is going to the next round, not sure about the points. Go with a moneyline bet now in case the spread gets larger and if the spread gets smaller cancel your moneyline bet and go with the spread.
-WVU with the spread, but wait for the spread to go down some because of the injury.
-Take the points with Cornell (or the moneyline) just to make watching the game more fun (No don't do that, that's a bad reason to make a bet).
-I don't know which way the OSU-Tenn line will go, but I like OSU to win. Not sure if they will cover though.
-Give Tom Izzo a week to figure out how to gather his team without Kalin Lucas. Will that be enough?
-Duke looks to advance and so the line will probably increase as the country believes that.
-If you think Purdue can hang with Duke, then pick the Over, otherwise if it is a blowout by Duke then I think it'll be better to go with the Under because that'll mean Purdue isn't scoring.
What bets are you making? Put it in the comments.
(1) Syracuse vs (5) Butler - 7:07pm
(2) West Virginia vs (11) Washington - 7:27pm
(2) Kansas State vs (6) Xavier - 9:37pm
(1) Kentucky vs (12) Cornell - 9:57pm
All the Friday Game
(2) Ohio State vs (6) Tennessee - 7:07pm
(3) Baylor vs (10) St. Mary's - 7:27pm
(5) Michigan State vs (9) Northern Iowa - 9:37pm
(1) Duke vs (4) Purdue - 9:57pm
The second set of games each day will probably start later than above, but the first games will start at the time listed. Get your bets in on time.
Let's look at the lines:
Spread - Favorite Team (Avg PPG) (Moneyline) - Underdog (Avg PPG) (Moneyline) - Total - Notes about NCAA tournament
6 - Syracuse (81.6) (-270) vs Butler (69.8) (+230) - 138.5 - Syracuse ATS W both games
4 - West Virginia (72.9) (-190) vs Washington (79.9) (+165) - 142 - WVU ATS W and Total Under both games.
4.5 - Kansas State (79.8) (-220) vs Xavier (79.3) (+180) - 153.5 - KState ATS W and Total Under both games.
8.5 - Kentucky (80.1) (-500) vs Cornell (75.8) (+400) - 147 - Kent ATS W and Total Over both games
4.5 - Ohio State (74.1) (-210) vs Tennessee (73.6) (+175) - 134 -
4.5 - Baylor (77.3) (-200) vs St. Mary's (79.4) (+170) -145 -
1 - Michigan State (72.9) (N/A) vs Northern Iowa (63.6) (N/A) - 121 -
8 - Duke (77.6) (-410) vs Purdue (70.9) (+325) - 129.5 - Duke ATS W and Total Under both games
More info:
-If you like Cornell, bet early. The line started higher and is climbing down. The public is jumping on Cornell's bandwagon. Most expect Kentucky to win this game and Cornell to cover.
-The WVU line will change tomorrow with news of Truck Byrant's broken ankle and for good reason. Many have pointed to WVU not having a great true point guard and now they'll be saying even more about that. But as the John gasaway at Basketball Prospectus have mentioned, it hasn't affected WVU and they control the ball well. If you still believe WVU will stay true to that then wait because the line is going to get smaller.
-Yes, Kalin Lucas is definitely out and yes that matters. You decide how much it matters, the guys making the lines have thought about this, you're not tricking them.
-Don't try to tease anything. If you don't like the spread, then take the moneyline. Play single games by themselves.
For all your stats needs, go here: statsheet.com/mcb
For all your betting line trends, go here: covers.com (click around there, lots of interesting info)
To make all your bets...well that's illegal, check out covers.com to see where to bet.
What my choices are right now:
-Syracuse is going to the next round, not sure about the points. Go with a moneyline bet now in case the spread gets larger and if the spread gets smaller cancel your moneyline bet and go with the spread.
-WVU with the spread, but wait for the spread to go down some because of the injury.
-Take the points with Cornell (or the moneyline) just to make watching the game more fun (No don't do that, that's a bad reason to make a bet).
-I don't know which way the OSU-Tenn line will go, but I like OSU to win. Not sure if they will cover though.
-Give Tom Izzo a week to figure out how to gather his team without Kalin Lucas. Will that be enough?
-Duke looks to advance and so the line will probably increase as the country believes that.
-If you think Purdue can hang with Duke, then pick the Over, otherwise if it is a blowout by Duke then I think it'll be better to go with the Under because that'll mean Purdue isn't scoring.
What bets are you making? Put it in the comments.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Philadelphia Union Inaguaral Season 2010
Having lived near Chester most of my life though I have some doubts that the stadium and infrastructure within and around it will be fully prepared for the season. I wish no injuries, robberies, or poor service to anyone, but I do hope all fans and the city is preparing for the situation.
The stadium holds up to 18,500 for soccer games. There is also a $500 million waterfront revitalization project called "KickStart Chester".
The first game is this Thursday, March 25th at Seattle Sounders on ESPN2 at 9:30pm.
The home opener is Saturday, April 10 against DC United at The Linc at 6:00pm.
The first home game in Chester is expected to be Sunday, June 27 at 5:00pm against Seattle Sounders.
Here is the full schedule.
Also, check out the team's Facebook page. It has been full of a lot of useful information since the team's inception.
Sports Illustrated Steve Davis predicts the Union to finish last (8th) in the Eastern Conference and says to expect "some lumps along the way" as the Union build up with talented youth.
I'm not sure where the best place will be to stay up to date with the team will be, but Philly.com isn't a bad idea. I imagine they will have the best "traditional" coverage.
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/soccer/
As for blogs, I don't know of any specific blog that plans to cover the Union in depth, so let me know if there are any and I will list them here. Otherwise don't forget to check out these guys:
The 700 Level
Phinally Philly
Goal.com
edit: found some more info
Just found a much better preview for the team at Goal.com.MLS 2010 Team Preview: Philadelphia Union
That preview highlights the possible starting lineup, gives some info about many of the players and the coach, and also says the team has a chance to sneak into the playoffs. Read it as you are wondering who each of the players are.
Monday, March 22, 2010
Underclassmen Knock-outs
Stolen from the bottom of Andy Katz's Daily Word:
Favors: "Is he raw? Sure. But if he had a point guard who could get him the ball, he would dominate."
Monroe: "those who question Monroe's heartbeat just got more ammunition. He's too content to blend when he needs to carry...His draft stock is as high as it's going to get."
Fredette: "His first game had shades of Stephen Curry at Davidson two years ago. But Kansas State slowed him down considerably in the second round. More damning was Fredette's defense, or lack thereof. Some NBA scouts see him as a late first-round pick. I think late second round is more realistic."
Harris: "if he declares, I think he secured himself a first-round pick with this tournament performance."
From the rankings:
Name (class) - Draft Position
Aldrich (junior) - Top 10
Henry (freshman) - Late lottery to mid first round
Monroe (sophomore) - Lottery
Lawal (junior) - Late first to early second
Favors (freshman) - Top 5
Harris (freshman) - Mid to late first round
Alabi (sophomore) - Late lottery to mid first round
Caracter (junior) - Second round to undrafted
Fredette (junior) - Second round to undrafted
Bradley (freshman) - Late lottery to mid first round
Hamilton (freshman) - Late first to early second
These rankings are likely not updated in a few weeks so this is where they were before. If you think any of them have changed greatly post it in the comments.
The general rule of thumb is don't go pro unless you know you'll get drafted in the first round. If any of them stay it would be a huge benefit to their teams for next year, but wait and listen.
These guys all lost and so they don't have any more opportunities to show themselves to scouts. Let's see what Chad Ford says about these guys.So from the teams that have lost, who has to make decisions about leaving for the NBA or at least testing the draft for a week?Kansas: Cole Aldrich and Xavier Henry.Georgetown: Greg MonroeGeorgia Tech: Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors.Gonzaga: Elias Harris.Florida State: Solomon Alabi.UTEP: Derrick Caracter.BYU: Jimmer FredetteTexas: Avery Bradley and Jordan Hamilton.
Favors: "Is he raw? Sure. But if he had a point guard who could get him the ball, he would dominate."
Monroe: "those who question Monroe's heartbeat just got more ammunition. He's too content to blend when he needs to carry...His draft stock is as high as it's going to get."
Fredette: "His first game had shades of Stephen Curry at Davidson two years ago. But Kansas State slowed him down considerably in the second round. More damning was Fredette's defense, or lack thereof. Some NBA scouts see him as a late first-round pick. I think late second round is more realistic."
Harris: "if he declares, I think he secured himself a first-round pick with this tournament performance."
From the rankings:
Name (class) - Draft Position
Aldrich (junior) - Top 10
Henry (freshman) - Late lottery to mid first round
Monroe (sophomore) - Lottery
Lawal (junior) - Late first to early second
Favors (freshman) - Top 5
Harris (freshman) - Mid to late first round
Alabi (sophomore) - Late lottery to mid first round
Caracter (junior) - Second round to undrafted
Fredette (junior) - Second round to undrafted
Bradley (freshman) - Late lottery to mid first round
Hamilton (freshman) - Late first to early second
These rankings are likely not updated in a few weeks so this is where they were before. If you think any of them have changed greatly post it in the comments.
The general rule of thumb is don't go pro unless you know you'll get drafted in the first round. If any of them stay it would be a huge benefit to their teams for next year, but wait and listen.
Sunday, March 21, 2010
Villanova's Future
Villanova lost yesterday to St. Mary's in the Second Round. The Wildcats had been struggling for weeks and their problems finally caught up to them in an elimination game. I thought that the scare against Robert Morris in the First Round might energize them to fix their problems and get it together. But it didn't happen. And while for Nova's sake Kansas lost yesterday as well, taking the national spotlight away from them. The spotlight is still very much on them though in Philadelphia. Temple lost to Cornell, but Cornell is a very excellent team and Temple had a great season winning the A-10 tournament. Expectations are higher for Villanova and Scottie Reynolds ended his career in a manner no one would have predicted if you asked them at the start of the season.
Villanova will lose Scottie Reynolds and Reggie Redding, two great players that contributed a lot to the Wildcats. In a future post though I'll highlight why I think Villanova will be even better next year.
Hint: Corey and big men.
For now enjoy the tournament and root for the team of your choosing. Enjoy the John Wall show while it lasts. I'll be rooting for Ohio State and West Virginia.
Villanova will lose Scottie Reynolds and Reggie Redding, two great players that contributed a lot to the Wildcats. In a future post though I'll highlight why I think Villanova will be even better next year.
Hint: Corey and big men.
For now enjoy the tournament and root for the team of your choosing. Enjoy the John Wall show while it lasts. I'll be rooting for Ohio State and West Virginia.
Bye Bye Kansas
Haven't posted much recently (check out my twitter, always active there), but my last post was praising the Kansas Jayhawks who yesterday were knocked out of the tournament. It was an amazing game, Sherron Collins really had a tough day and Kansas just wasn't scoring like they are used to. Check out the roster breakdown I posted and you'll see that despite losing a few guys to the NBA and graduation Kansas will still be good next year.
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