Sweet 16 Betting Lines

All the Thursday games.
(1) Syracuse vs (5) Butler - 7:07pm
(2) West Virginia vs (11) Washington - 7:27pm
(2) Kansas State vs (6) Xavier - 9:37pm
(1) Kentucky vs (12) Cornell - 9:57pm

All the Friday Game
(2) Ohio State vs (6) Tennessee - 7:07pm
(3) Baylor vs (10) St. Mary's - 7:27pm
(5) Michigan State vs (9) Northern Iowa - 9:37pm
(1) Duke vs (4) Purdue - 9:57pm


The second set of games each day will probably start later than above, but the first games will start at the time listed. Get your bets in on time.

Let's look at the lines:
Spread - Favorite Team (Avg PPG) (Moneyline) - Underdog (Avg PPG) (Moneyline) - Total - Notes about NCAA tournament
6 - Syracuse (81.6) (-270) vs Butler (69.8) (+230) - 138.5 - Syracuse ATS W both games
4 - West Virginia (72.9) (-190) vs Washington (79.9) (+165) - 142 - WVU ATS W and Total Under both games.
4.5 - Kansas State (79.8) (-220) vs Xavier (79.3) (+180) - 153.5 - KState ATS W and Total Under both games.
8.5 - Kentucky (80.1) (-500) vs Cornell (75.8) (+400) - 147 - Kent ATS W and Total Over both games
4.5 - Ohio State (74.1) (-210) vs Tennessee (73.6) (+175) - 134 -
4.5 - Baylor (77.3) (-200) vs St. Mary's (79.4) (+170) -145 -
1 - Michigan State (72.9) (N/A) vs Northern Iowa (63.6) (N/A) - 121 - 
8 - Duke (77.6) (-410) vs Purdue (70.9) (+325) - 129.5 -  Duke ATS W and Total Under both games

More info:
-If you like Cornell, bet early. The line started higher and is climbing down. The public is jumping on Cornell's bandwagon.  Most expect Kentucky to win this game and Cornell to cover.
-The WVU line will change tomorrow with news of Truck Byrant's broken ankle and for good reason.  Many have pointed to WVU not having a great true point guard and now they'll be saying even more about that.  But as the John gasaway at Basketball Prospectus have mentioned, it hasn't affected WVU and they control the ball well.  If you still believe WVU will stay true to that then wait because the line is going to get smaller.
-Yes, Kalin Lucas is definitely out and yes that matters. You decide how much it matters, the guys making the lines have thought about this, you're not tricking them.
-Don't try to tease anything. If you don't like the spread, then take the moneyline. Play single games by themselves.

For all your stats needs, go here: statsheet.com/mcb
For all your betting line trends, go here: covers.com (click around there, lots of interesting info)
To make all your bets...well that's illegal, check out covers.com to see where to bet.

What my choices are right now:
-Syracuse is going to the next round, not sure about the points. Go with a moneyline bet now in case the spread gets larger and if the spread gets smaller cancel your moneyline bet and go with the spread.
-WVU with the spread, but wait for the spread to go down some because of the injury.
-Take the points with Cornell (or the moneyline) just to make watching the game more fun (No don't do that, that's a bad reason to make a bet).
-I don't know which way the OSU-Tenn line will go, but I like OSU to win. Not sure if they will cover though.
-Give Tom Izzo a week to figure out how to gather his team without Kalin Lucas.  Will that be enough?
-Duke looks to advance and so the line will probably increase as the country believes that.
-If you think Purdue can hang with Duke, then pick the Over, otherwise if it is a blowout by Duke then I think it'll be better to go with the Under because that'll mean Purdue isn't scoring.

What bets are you making? Put it in the comments.

Underclassmen Knock-outs

Stolen from the bottom of Andy Katz's Daily Word:

So from the teams that have lost, who has to make decisions about leaving for the NBA or at least testing the draft for a week?

Kansas: Cole Aldrich and Xavier Henry.

Georgetown: Greg Monroe

Georgia Tech: Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors.

Gonzaga: Elias Harris.

Florida State: Solomon Alabi.

UTEP: Derrick Caracter.

BYU: Jimmer Fredette

Texas: Avery Bradley and Jordan Hamilton.

These guys all lost and so they don't have any more opportunities to show themselves to scouts. Let's see what Chad Ford says about these guys.
Favors: "Is he raw? Sure. But if he had a point guard who could get him the ball, he would dominate."
Monroe: "those who question Monroe's heartbeat just got more ammunition. He's too content to blend when he needs to carry...His draft stock is as high as it's going to get."
Fredette: "His first game had shades of Stephen Curry at Davidson two years ago. But Kansas State slowed him down considerably in the second round. More damning was Fredette's defense, or lack thereof. Some NBA scouts see him as a late first-round pick. I think late second round is more realistic."
Harris: "if he declares, I think he secured himself a first-round pick with this tournament performance."

From the rankings:
Name (class) - Draft Position
Aldrich (junior) - Top 10
Henry (freshman) - Late lottery to mid first round
Monroe (sophomore) - Lottery
Lawal (junior) - Late first to early second
Favors (freshman) - Top 5
Harris (freshman) - Mid to late first round
Alabi (sophomore) - Late lottery to mid first round
Caracter (junior) - Second round to undrafted
Fredette (junior) - Second round to undrafted
Bradley (freshman) - Late lottery to mid first round
Hamilton (freshman) - Late first to early second

These rankings are likely not updated in a few weeks so this is where they were before.  If you think any of them have changed greatly post it in the comments.

The general rule of thumb is don't go pro unless you know you'll get drafted in the first round.  If any of them stay it would be a huge benefit to their teams for next year, but wait and listen.

Villanova's Future

Villanova lost yesterday to St. Mary's in the Second Round.  The Wildcats had been struggling for weeks and their problems finally caught up to them in an elimination game.  I thought that the scare against Robert Morris in the First Round might energize them to fix their problems and get it together.  But it didn't happen.  And while for Nova's sake Kansas lost yesterday as well, taking the national spotlight away from them.  The spotlight is still very much on them though in Philadelphia. Temple lost to Cornell, but Cornell is a very excellent team and Temple had a great season winning the A-10 tournament.  Expectations are higher for Villanova and Scottie Reynolds ended his career in a manner no one would have predicted if you asked them at the start of the season.

Villanova will lose Scottie Reynolds and Reggie Redding, two great players that contributed a lot to the Wildcats.  In a future post though I'll highlight why I think Villanova will be even better next year.

Hint: Corey and big men.

For now enjoy the tournament and root for the team of your choosing. Enjoy the John Wall show while it lasts.  I'll be rooting for Ohio State and West Virginia.

Bye Bye Kansas

Haven't posted much recently (check out my twitter, always active there), but my last post was praising the Kansas Jayhawks who yesterday were knocked out of the tournament.  It was an amazing game, Sherron Collins really had a tough day and Kansas just wasn't scoring like they are used to.  Check out the roster breakdown I posted and you'll see that despite losing a few guys to the NBA and graduation Kansas will still be good next year.

The Blue Chip Loaded Roster of the Kansas Jayhawks

The 2009-2010 Kansas Jayhawks are one of the best teams in the country this season because of the combination of great returning stars and new freshmen to the team.  With apparent reports of G Tyshawn Taylor saying on facebook he wants to transfer, let's look at the roster of this team.
In 2008-2009, the Jayhawks went 25-7 (14-2 in Big 12) and were the regular season champs of the Big 12 conference.  They were upset in the conference tournament in their first game to Baylor.  In the NCAA tournament, they were a 3 seed that lost in the sweet sixteen to the 2 seed, Michigan State.  All in all a pretty good season for Bill Self, considering they lost to the eventual tournament runner up. 
So far in 2009-2010, the Jayhawks are 17-1 (3-0 in Big 12) with their one loss being a surprise upset at Tennessee.  They still have to play Texas and Kansas State twice, but let's look at this team anyway, who is expected to go far in the NCAA tournament.
2009-2010
Starters:
G Fr. Xavier Henry
G Sr. Sherron Collins
G So Tyshawn Taylor
F So. Marcus Morris
C Jr. Cole Aldrich
Bench: (all player getting more than 5 mpg)
F So. Markieff Morris
G Jr. Brady Morningstar 
G Jr. Tyrel Reed
F Fr. Thomas Robinson
G Fr. Elijah Johnson
G Fr. C.J. Henry
G Jr. Conner Teahan

Taylor may lose his starting spot to Morningstar, but that is not yet definite.  So they have 12 players, including 4 freshmen averaging more than 5 minutes a game so far this season.  Coach Self is splitting the minutes up to everyone pretty fairly then it seems.

Let's look back at last year's team.
2008-2009
Starters:
Brady Morningstar

Sherron Collins
Tyshawn Taylor
Marcus Morris
Cole Aldrich
Bench:
Markieff Morris
Tyrel Reed
G Jr. Mario Little
G Fr. Travis Releford
F Fr. Quintrell Thomas

Thomas transferred to UNLV.  Releford and Little haven't played a minute yet this season.  Morningstar has seen his minutes and role decreased, although now as the tougher part of the season approaches his minutes may rise.  If it wasn't for John Wall, Xavier Henry might have been a more well-known freshmen, regardless he is still having a great season.
This team is basically the same team as last year with a few more pieces added to the puzzle. As long as Bill Self can handle all the players and their minutes this team should be going far into the tournament.

NBA Prospects
According to Chad Ford's Top 100 draft prospects and ESPN Insider rankings, 6 of the Jayhawks could be in the NBA next season.
Cole Aldrich is ranked as Ford's 7th best prospect.
Xavier Henry is ranked as Ford's 8th best prospect.
Sherron Collins is ranked as Ford's 4th best point guard (43rd overall).
Tyshawn Taylor is ranked as Ford's 11th best point guard (70th overall).
Marcus Morris is ranked as Ford's 48th best power forward (168th overall).
Thomas Robinson is ranked as Ford's 50th best power forward (172nd overall).

Collins will be graduating and is likely to get drafted and Henry and Aldrich are both likely to leave as well.  Taylor could test the waters, but should stick around for another year and get some more playing time.

So, all college basketball fans, enjoy Collins leading this team for a final time and Aldrich being that great center for one last season.  The expectations are high and this team can live up to the expectations.

Villanova's Benn to transfer to Niagara

Villanova's Benn to transfer to Niagara | Daily News | 05/01/2007

Not really a big tragedy, but worthy to note that sophomore Villanova guard Bilal Benn is transferring out of Villanova. It doesn't look like he'd get more playing time next year with all the new guards coming in, so it's probably a good move for Benn. He's transferring to Niagara and will have to sit out next season.

Scottie Reynolds invited to try out for national team

Scottie Reynolds was invited to play for the USA National team in the under-19 world championships which are going to be held July 12-22 in Serbia. At first glance I thought it meant Team USA, like the NBA players, but I realized that was crazy. I'm assuming this team is made up of all amateur players who are under the age of 19. It's still quite a compliment to be named one of the best players in America who won't be going to the draft. It's good to hear for Reynolds. Hopefully he plays great and doesn't get hurt and hopefully that team does better than the older guys team did.
'Nova's Reynolds invited to try out for national team | Inquirer | 04/26/2007

Top 16 NBA Crimes of the Year

Yes the link is stolen from Deadspin, but I thoroughly enjoyed this post so much that I had to share it with my readers. So check it out, it's a rundown of the Top 16 Crimes of the Year committed by NBA players. The sad thing is I don't think any of it is made up. Click it, enjoy it, and be happy the Sixers don't have any of those guys.
I *Heart* Celtics.com - Top 16 NBA Crimes

Green and Hibbert Could Still Return

Asked what his chances of returning to Georgetown were Jeff Green said 70% chance that he could come back. Since neither Green nor Hibbert has a hired an agent they both could still return. Hibbert said his odds were 50% chance of returning. This is good news for Georgetown fans. It seems that Hibbert will likely go pro because he most definately will be a top15 pick. As for Green I'm not quite sure where he is predicted to be drafted and once he figures that out he'll probably decide if he wants to come back or not.

Green puts chances of returning to Georgetown at 70 percent | Daily News | 04/18/2007

Georgetown's Green, Hibbert to enter NBA draft

If anyone is a fan of Georgetown like I am, then you will be disappointed (but not surprised) to hear that both Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert will be going to the NBA. They both had a great tournament. Green proved that he was a legitimate first round pick with size, scoring ability, and all around great basketball awareness. Hibbert is well 7-2, so lots of NBA teams would like him. They could still pull out of the draft if they don't hire an agent or any of that other stuff that would prohibit them from entering the draft. As for Georgetown hopefully these two guys have gotten them back on the map and more good kids will continue to go there for years to come.
ESPN.com - NBA/DRAFT2007 - Georgetown's Green, Hibbert to enter NBA draft

Joakim Noah is a douche

And then PTI makes fun of him.

Villanova’s Reynolds staying

Source: Villanova’s Reynolds staying | Daily News | 03/21/2007:

According to the Daily News a source has told them that Scottie Reynolds has decided to not test the draft waters. It is a wise decision and seems to be pretty obvious, but after last year with Lowry leaving early it's good to see Reynolds staying. With all the players forced to go college this year the draft is looking to be pretty stacked since all those guys have gotten a year better along with the college kids. Villanova should be great next year with the freshmen guards they got coming in, let's hope they get some dominant bigmen somehow so they won't have to play a 5 guard scheme.

Drexel Dragons had a good weekend

The most surprising college team in Philadelphia this winter would definately have to be the Drexel Dragons. Their men's basketball team is having a spectacular winter, beating Villanova earlier in the season. So it shouldn't come as too much of a surpise, but it still is that Drexel beat Creighton yesterday in a terrific come from behind road win. The game was shown on ESPN and called a "Bracket Busters" game. Drexel isn't in first place in their league, but they have shown the ability to win on the road (12 road wins - best in Division 1) which should come in handy come conference tournament time. In case we forgot the surprise team of last year's March Madness - George Mason - is from the same conference as Drexel.
It would definately be a crazy March if Drexel made it farther than any Big 5 team. We shall see.
Drexel pulls off stunner, beats Creighton on road

In some more surprising college news the Drexel men's lacrosse team beat #1 Virginia to open the season. Virginia won the championship last year and was also the home team for this game. It was a come from behind win for Drexel who scored the winning goal with 10 seconds left in the game. The score was 11-10 and it was the first time in Drexel sports history that any team beat the top ranked team in any sport.
Drexel tops No. 1 Va. in men's lacrosse

Dunk Contest Live Blog

I figured I'm sitting here watching the dunk contest, why don't I do a live blog of it.
Sure, why not.
Newer posts will be at the bottom. I don't feel like putting a timestamp on each update.

-Michael Jordan is the toughest judge so far. After the first round Gerald Green had a 48 and Nate Robinson had a 45. Green has a real cool original dunk where his teammate and him ran up the baseline and his teammate tossed the ball off the side of the backboard and he caught it and dunked.

- Tyrus Thomas had a nice dunk where he jumped over Ben Gordon and slammed it with one hand. He also managed to rip the net off of the rim on the dunk so now we have a delay while the put up a new a net.

-The net is fixed. Dwight Howard put a sticker on the top of the backboard during his dunk. That's crazy. He caught the ball from his teammate under the net and slammed it with his right hand while he slammed a sticker on the top of the backboard with his left hand.

-It's a conspiracy for Nate Robinson to win again this year. He just grabbed the ball from his teammate holding the ball up and did a 180 and slammed it in. It was not better than Howard's dunk, but the judges scored it higher because Nate is the little guy.

-Now Nate is standing in the lane ready to be jumped over. That was a sweet dunk, Green just dunked over Nate Robinson.

-A pretty cool dramatic commercial where the guy dunks at the end of the game to win it. I think it was for the new Lebron shoe. It was like the Space Jam winning dunk where Mike dunked over all the aliens, except without the arm extending part.

-Gerald Green and Nate Robinson are the top dunkers to advance. Dwight Howard got robbed. I don't think Howard made it and that's just because he's 7feet tall and they wanted more from him. Nate is going to win it just cause he's the little guy, also because if you ask me there's a knicks conspiracy (just kidding, i think).

-A pretty generic dunk by Nate, grabbed the rim then dunked it with the other hand.

-Green caught the ball passed to him from behind the backboard and dunked it with two hands. The timing is very tough for a dunk like that.
Now puts the pressure on Nate to really do something.

-Nate is trying to throw it off the backboard catch it and do a 360 dunk. 4 tries and he hasn't done it yet.

-He is tired. He finally got it on his 10th try. Green only needs a 40 to win.

-Green jumped from about two steps in front of the foul line over a box and slammed it. He is the winner.

-That's it for the dunk contest. The first round with all 4 dunkers was better. I wanted to say that they should have more dunkers in the contest but watching this final round I see that these dunks can be really tiring cause they seemed pretty tired. I wish they could make it longer so we could see more dunks.
Another thing is that it's important that you score a lot of points on every dunk. You should be able to get one good dunk to be a good base and then in the next round go for a crazy dunk that no one has ever done. The dunkers have to be kind of smart about each of their dunks to make sure they get enough points each time.

Cats Beat up on Hawks

Villanova beat St. Joe's 56-39 in a fine display of poor offense and poor shooting. The Hawks shot 13/50 from the floor, while 'Nova shot 21/59. Villanova ended up winning due to strong defense and their two seniors, Sumpter and Nardi, who led in scoring with 14 points and 11 points respectively. Villanova wins the Big 5 crown this year going 4-0 against the oter Big 5 teams for the second year in a row. It was also the lowest scoring game for the Hawks against the Cats since 1939.
Maybe the game needed to be at the Palestra, maybe St. Joe's really needs to mature and gain some experience. Hopefully Phil Martelli can rebuild St. Joe's into a team that can beat the rest of the Big 5 in the next few years.
There's nothing like a good hard fought Villanova - St. Joe's game.

Inquirer Article
ESPN.com Article

St. Joe's - Villanova - Rivalry at it's best

One of the greatest rivalrys in college basketball. Definately the best rivalry in Big 5 ball.
Villanova has been playing great some games and playing horribly some games, they are looking to make a return to the tournament this season despite losing 3 of their guards to the NBA. Curtis Sumpter is trying to make a run in the tournament. St Joe's is in the middle of a rebuilding year. Shannon Ryan has a nice article today about the excitement of the game.

Sumpter summed up the rivalry. "The crowd, the fans, the competitiveness," he said. "The whole city comes together for Big Five games. It's like nothing else matters. [Either team] can be the worst team in its conference, and it's still a battle."
...
"Anything that you can possibly think of might happen," the senior said.
...
"If your juices don't flow [tonight]," Martelli said, "then you've got to check your pulse to see if you're still alive."
...
"We take ourselves out of the Big East and just talk about the Big Five," Wright said. "This is our next game, this is what it is. For us, it's like the world stops for every game."

The game is at 7 tonight on ESPN2, or if you are in the Philly area it's at Villanova.

And Your New Favorite Team is Denver

It's all but official, Iverson is going to Denver to join the Nuggets. Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson on the same team with George Karl as the coach. Now they might not be good for at least 15 games as Carmelo sits and thinks about the stupid punch he threw the other night. At first I liked Carmelo's punch. It was like "Fuck with my teammate I'm going to fuck with you." Which is great and all, but what you got to realize also is that you are your team's best player and if you make that move you know you are going to get punished for it. Your team might lose a few games and that could end up really hurting your team in terms of playoff position. Either way Carmelo probably does regret it a lot and he's learned from it.
January 20th is the first game he can come back for. Until then, its going to be the Iverson show in Denver. As it stands right now, Denver will have the 1st and 2nd highest scorer in the league. Hopefully the two of them can work together. I'm not used to rooting for non-Philly teams, but this is definately an exception. I'm rooting for Iverson, I'm not taking my Iverson poster down. I want to see him and the Nuggets beat everyone in the league. The fans still love Iverson and I bet Iverson still loves the fans. Tuesday, January 2nd, the Sixers travel to Denver. Too bad that game isn't in Philly. The Nuggets don't come to Philly anymore this season.
Maybe Comcast can start showing Denver games instead of the Sixers?


Eh, at least we are going to have 3 first round draft picks next year, right?
I'm also rooting for the Sixers to lose every game so we can get that top draft pick. And don't try and tell that I'm a bad fan for saying that. This is a certain circumstance where you can root for your team to lose.
Just to ruin the draft pick thing for you too, here's the all the first round draft picks the Sixers have had since Iverson in 1996:
Keith Van Horn, Larry Hughes, Speedy Claxton, Samuel Dalembert, John Salmons, and Andre Iguodala. Granted Iguodala could still become a great player, but he's not really capable of leading the team yet. I guess we do Chris Webber to lead the team now though, geeze doesn't that sound great. Or Andre Miller, it's all up for grabs.

Sixers, Nuggets reach agreement for Iverson - ESPN
Iverson goes to Nuggets - Inquirer
Iverson Finally Traded ... To The Nuggs! - Deadspin

Why Preseason rankings are incorrect

Look who's #1 in the ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll this week, Ohio State. Yes, they may have the best class of freshmen in the nation. Ohio State only has 11 first place votes but more points than UCLA, who has 13 first place votes. They haven't really beaten anyone yet and they don't have their man, Greg Oden, yet. They have no reason to not be at the top spot since they started the season at 3, but they haven't really earned the top spot yet. Regardless, UNC should knock them off on Wednesday, that is going to be a great game. UCLA is a great team and they should be #1. UCLA beat both Kentucky and Georgia Tech last week to win the Maui Invitational. The next big game they have is 12/9 vs. Texas A&M, a team that is looking to have a real big year, should be a good game.

Wooo Sixers

I bring you more from ESPN. Bill Simmon's previewed the upcoming NBA season. I haven't cared for the NBA too much since the Sixers started sucking and it appears this year will also be like that.

The feel-bad Sixers
I have them penciled in for "worst team in the East" status, and not just because they'll be dealing Iverson within the next four months and everyone in Philly is more depressed than Robert Smith when he was writing the "Disintegration" album. Consider the following things ...

A. They're stuck paying Iverson and C-Webb a combined $81 million over the next two seasons.

B. They're paying $21 million in dead salary money this season to Todd MacCulloch, Jamal Mashburn and Greg Buckner.

C. They owe Sam Dalembert and Kyle Korver another $79 million over the next five seasons.

D. Their starting point guard is Kevin Ollie, the NBA equivalent of kicking off an NFL season with Sage Rosenfels and Aaron Brooks.

E. According to the Indy Star, Embattled GM Billy King (that's officially his name now) spent $1,600 to attend Coach K's leadership conference two weeks ago.

F. Points A-thru-D and point E are probably related.

G. Philly reader Rob B. sums everything up: "I'm a Sixers season-ticket holder, which probably tells you everything you need to know about my psyche. The Sixers send you an e-mail at some point each offseason where they lay out what their new ad campaign is this year. They've had doozies in the past, including one campaign that said 'This place is fun!' This year, the slogan is 'It's a Philly thing.' (Go to Sixers.com, it's plastered all over there. And you get to see Mo Cheeks say 'It's a Philly thing' in a really awkward manner.) My friends and I have been pondering for months now what exactly 'it' is? Losing? Mediocrity? Overpaying crappy players? Disappointment?"

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/part2/061101

So, um let's hope the Eagles pick it up or else the only news this winter is going to be which team won't take Pat Burrell.

76ers in Europe

The Sixers are in Europe for the start of training camp on this NBA world tour thing. It's nothing good for us really besides being able to hear about European teams beating up on the Sixers. Rodney Carney is blogging on NBA.com about the trip. Rodney Carney’s Europe Live Blog.
American players just love to complain about how Europeans play the game differently.

Obviously, free throws are something we need to work on. But their kind of game was not like the NBA. They drove and kick, and you're supposed to stop the ball. We'd rather give up a jump shot than a layup. They knocked down shots.

When we get to playing NBA teams, I think it will be a little different. We weren't really prepared for how they played.

Hopefully they are actually good this year, maybe people will follow them then.

The focus today was defense. We can run and we got scorers, but we need to defend better. Coach Cheeks made a point in our meeting earlier that our offense was seventh in the NBA last year, but our defense was like 23rd. And that's not good enough. That doesn't cut it.

Our offense is good enough. We just gotta fix a few things on the defensive side. We gotta help more and we gotta trust each other more. I can see the trust now. We just gotta get it down in these next few days of practice.

I just can't wait to get at it. The first day was fun. We're out here bonding. I can see it's going to be a much better team this year.