Monday, March 29, 2010

2010 MLB Player Prop Bets - Using Fangraph's Projections

FanGraphs.com has a large amount of stats from the past and present.  It also has projections from various sources for the 2010 season.  Many have been using these projections to talk about the season many fantasy players will have or how teams will do.  One of the projection systems used is called the "CHONE" projection system, which is done by Sean Smith.  It is a respected system that has been around for a few years.  Another new system this year is the "Fans" system, whereby users of the site were able to submit their expectations for the season.  The system will test out the theory that the average of the group will be closest to the right answer.  There are plenty of objections and things possibly wrong with it, but it is still interesting to explore.  For example of all the projections, look at this page for the Chase Utley stats and projections.
I want to look at possible prop bets for the 2010 season and see if these projection systems point out any worthwhile bets.  I took the prop bets from SportsBook.com and put them into excel with the projections to compare the predictions.  There are two separate sheets in the file, one for pitcher prop bets and one for hitter prop bets. There are 3 main stats I'm including:
"Sportsbook Amount" - which is the Over/Under amount for each prop bet.
"Chone Projection" - which is the amount the Chone system predicts.
"Fan Projection" - which is the amount the Fan system predicts.
I took the average of the Chone and Fan systems, which may or may not be useful since most of the fan predictions seem to be a bit high.
Finally, the other columns are percentage differences between each category.
I sorted the column by the largest percent difference between the Prop amount and the average amount.

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