Well, only one scenario could play out. And for a long time it looked like it'd be the one where the USA was sent home, but Tim Howard sent a great pass out to Landon Donovan, then to Jozy Altidore, a shot off the Algerian keeper by Clint Dempsey, and a rebound right to Donovan who calmly kicked it to the back of the net. After watching it hit the net, Donovan ran over to the sideline and headfirst slid right in front of the corner flag and was mobbed by his teammates.
The game was a huge struggle, tons of missed chances, some possible referee missed calls, but none of that mattered in the end. The offsides was huge, could have saved the USA a lot of headache. The play where Dempsey got smacked in the face and walked away bleeding looked bad on the replay. Watching live it didn't seem to bad, but the replay showed the Algerian player clearly smacking Dempsey in the face, that's no good and needs to be called. I was worried for Dempsey when I saw that and afraid he wasn't going to make it back out for the rest of the game. The style of play by the Algerians was also very frustrating in the 2nd half. Did Algeria want to win or did they just not want the USA to win? It was a funny storyline how Algeria was wronged in 1982, it was crazy watching the scoreboard of the 2 games, hoping someone would score. A USA goal meant USA won the group, and a Slovenia goal (draw) meant USA advanced as the runner-up.
Everyone in America was preparing to fire off about Team USA, give up, complain, go back to baseball, talk about basketball, or even tennis. The journalists were ready to blast the team for not scoring when they needed to, for missing their opportunities, etc. All hope for American soccer seemed lost. Everyone said USA had a great team and they should be expected to do well, but a disappointing knock-out in the group stage would have erased all that and all the advancements this team has made in the last 2 years would have been lost.
I went to see USA play Turkey in their last tune-up in America in Philadelphia and I loved it. The crowd was awesome, the team was awesome. I thought they might just jog around, knowing the game didn't really matter, but they played hard and showed us fans they were ready to do something great. I'm happy they pulled out the win and this tournament isn't over for this team.
I never had a strong opinion for or against Landon Donovan. I figured I didn't know enough about soccer to give a strong opinion one way or the other. But now, I don't care, Donovan is a great leader and he has come through in the crucial times for this team. I screamed when he passed that ball off to Jozy, I thought he should take it in all the way, but he knew what he was doing, and the ball ended up back at his feet and he scored, allowing us all to celebrate.
Next up on Saturday at 2:30pm EST, is the runner-up of Group D. Don't quit know USA, this team has only just started. They got off to a slow start, but they should have it figured out now. Two full days of rest and then delight Americans again on an awesome Saturday afternoon.
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Friday, June 18, 2010
Group C: One game to go. What's the Scenario?
Here are the standings for Group C:
| Team | GP | Wins | Loss | Draw | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Differential | Points So Far | Points Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 3 |
| USA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| England | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Algeria | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 3 |
On Wednesday at 10am EST, USA vs Algeria and England vs Slovenia.
The top two teams in the group advance.
Standings are based on total points.
The first tiebreaker is goal differential.
The second tiebreaker is total number of goals scored.
The third tiebreaker is greatest number of points in the game between tied teams.
The fourth tiebreaker is goal differential in game against tied team.
The fifth tiebreak is greatest number of goals scored against tied team.
Now every team is still alive, thanks to the Algeria-England draw.
USA wins against Algeria:
- If USA wins and Slovenia beats England, USA will be the 2nd seed out of Group C (Slovenia the 1st seed).
- If USA wins and England ties Slovenia, USA will advance. The 1st seed between USA and Slovenia, will be the team that scores more goals in their game. (So a 2-2 Slovenia tie and 1-0 USA win, means Slovenia will be 1st seed)
- If USA wins and England beats Slovenia, USA and England will advance. USA will be the 1st seed unless England scores 2 more goals than USA in their win.
- If USA ties and Slovenia beats England, USA will be the 2nd seed out of Group C.
- If USA ties and England ties Slovenia, USA and England will be tied in points. The team that scores more goals in their game will advance.
- If USA ties and England beats Slovenia, USA will be eliminated.
- If USA loses and Slovenia beats England, USA will be eliminated.
- If USA loses and England ties Slovenia, USA will be eliminated.
- If USA loses and England beats Slovenia, USA will be eliminated.
What to root for:
A USA win and England tie or win.
A USA tie and England tie or loss.
Group C: How Can Team USA advance
I'm not a soccer analyst and I'm not going to try to be. USA just tied Slovenia 2-2, in their second game. The result keeps USA alive, but it puts USA in a tough situation. England and Algeria have yet to play today and that affects everything a lot, but lets analyze the standing as of now.
Standings as of right now (12pm June 18):
Standings if England wins later today:
If England beats Slovenia, then USA advances with a win.
If Slovenia beats England, then USA advances with a win.
If England and Slovenia draw, then USA must win and win the tiebreaker.
Standings if England ties later today:
If England beats Slovenia, then USA advances with a win.
If Slovenia beats England, then USA advances with just a draw.
If England and Slovenia draw, then USA advances with a win, or advances with a draw and winning the tiebreaker.
Standings as of right now (12pm June 18):
| Team | GP | Wins | Loss | Draw | Points So Far | Points Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| USA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| England | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Algeria | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Standings if England wins later today:
| Team | GP | Wins | Loss | Draw | Points So Far | Points Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| England | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| USA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Algeria | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
If England beats Slovenia, then USA advances with a win.
If Slovenia beats England, then USA advances with a win.
If England and Slovenia draw, then USA must win and win the tiebreaker.
Standings if England ties later today:
| Team | GP | Wins | Loss | Draw | Points So Far | Points Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| USA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| England | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Algeria | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
If England beats Slovenia, then USA advances with a win.
If Slovenia beats England, then USA advances with just a draw.
If England and Slovenia draw, then USA advances with a win, or advances with a draw and winning the tiebreaker.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Is scoring down for the World Cup so far?
I've heard a lot of talk about how scoring is down and what it means so far. The problem I saw was that everyone was citing numbers for average goals per game over the course of the entire tournament. It could be possible that goals per game is different for the team's first game. I only looked at the last 5 World Cups (back to 1990).
World Cup: Average Goals Through Each Team's 1st Game
2010 is the first year where the average goal differential is less than 1 and the average total number of goals per game is less than 2. The past years were somewhat skewed by some large wins by some of the better nations that haven't really happened this year (except Germany).
What will happen from here on out? Hopefully more scoring. Your ideas in the comments on why the scoring is down, please.
World Cup: Average Goals Through Each Team's 1st Game
| Average | 2010 | 2006 | 2002 | 1998 | 1994 | 1990 |
| Goals Per Game | 1.563 | 2.438 | 2.875 | 2.313 | 2.500 | 2.250 |
| Goal Differential | 0.938 | 1.438 | 1.500 | 1.063 | 1.333 | 1.417 |
2010 is the first year where the average goal differential is less than 1 and the average total number of goals per game is less than 2. The past years were somewhat skewed by some large wins by some of the better nations that haven't really happened this year (except Germany).
What will happen from here on out? Hopefully more scoring. Your ideas in the comments on why the scoring is down, please.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
New Philly.com FanDuel Fantasy Sports Gambling Website
Philly.com, the home of the Philadelphia Inquirer and Philadelphia Daily News and the main place Delaware Valley residents go for their sports news has new website up and running called fanduel.philly.com.
Deposit amounts: Free (Practice Games only) - $10 +$5 Bonus - $25 +$10 - $100 + $20
You can withdraw your winnings (or leftovers) at any time.
You bet $5 to win $9. Meaning in a Head-to-Head game, you and one other person put in $5, meaning there is $10 on the game. The winner of the game gets 90% of the amount bet, or $9. The House (Philly.com and/or FanDuel.com) gets 10% of the amount gambled, or $1. The reason this is legal is because it's fantasy sports and fantasy sports are considered gambling because they require skill.
Right now there are MLB, NHL, and NBA games. Each game takes only 1 day to play. Only stats from one day of play is counted. Here are the rules for MLB:
Here is the most expensive player at each position.
P: Roy Halladay - 9,700
C: Joe Mauer - 4,000
1B: Albert Pujols - 3,900
2B: Chase Utley - 4,000
SS: Hanley Ramirez - 3,900
3B: Placido Polanco - 3,700
LF: Matt Holliday - 3,900
CF: Vernon Wells - 3,700
RF: Nelson Cruz - 4,100
This team's salary would add up to 40,900. So, you'd have you figure out how to save 5,900 somehow. It seems that the salaries are based off season expectations, reputations, season stats, and match-ups. I definitely haven't analyzed it much, but not sure why the starting pitchers for tomorrow aren't the most expensive. There's plenty of question marks on the prices, but I'm assuming they have some system to figure that out.
I guess the real question mark is can you pick your team better than the other person?
The other version is an Autopick draft version, where you rank your players and then the computer picks players in a snake order. You still need 1 player at each position in this case.
You can also do 5 or 10 player leagues in each sport. For this situation it appears to only be salary cap and not autopick draft. For these leagues, only the winner wins money, still 90% of the total bet, so $22.50 for $5 bet and $45 for $10 bet.
According to the leaderboard on the site, "kaiseroll13" has won 321 games already and has winnings of $5,364.
I find this fascinating that you can bet on DAILY fantasy baseball. Opening Monday to Closing Sunday minus 3 days for All-Star break is 178 days. Assuming you always picked the right team and the crappy opponent, even with betting only $5 a day you could win $712 over the course of a season.
I haven't gone through the deposit system so I don't quite understand the Bonus deposit amounts yet. If you can deposit $10 and get $5 in return, could you take out $15 then? Assuming they've had that figured out, what about the percentage of bonus you get. 10-5, 25-10, 100-20 doesn't make sense. The less you deposit the larger percentage bonus you get. Donate $100 and your balance would be $120, but donate $10 10 times and your balance would be $150.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments. Thanks to Chad Millman and his blog for the tip.
Deposit amounts: Free (Practice Games only) - $10 +$5 Bonus - $25 +$10 - $100 + $20
You can withdraw your winnings (or leftovers) at any time.
You bet $5 to win $9. Meaning in a Head-to-Head game, you and one other person put in $5, meaning there is $10 on the game. The winner of the game gets 90% of the amount bet, or $9. The House (Philly.com and/or FanDuel.com) gets 10% of the amount gambled, or $1. The reason this is legal is because it's fantasy sports and fantasy sports are considered gambling because they require skill.
Right now there are MLB, NHL, and NBA games. Each game takes only 1 day to play. Only stats from one day of play is counted. Here are the rules for MLB:
Pick a team of 9 players from the following games:There are 12 games tomorrow and this list includes all 12 games. You have to pick 9 players, 1 at each position. You have to set your roster before the first game of the day starts. If your roster scores more fantasy points than the other guy you win. You have a salary cap of $35,000, which comes out to $3,889 per player.
TEX @ CLE 9:05am PDT
ANA @ NYY 4:05pm PDT
MIL @ CHC 11:20am PDT
BOS @ MIN 10:10am PDT
HOU @ STL 10:40am PDT
NYM @ COL 12:10pm PDT
ARI @ LOS 7:10pm PDT
WAS @ PHI 12:05pm PDT
ATL @ SDP 3:35pm PDT
CWS @ TOR 4:07pm PDT
CIN @ FLA 4:10pm PDT
BAL @ OAK 7:05pm PDT
If your team scores more fantasy points than your opponent's, you win!
Each player has a salary, and you only have $35k to spend.
You must pick the following positions: P, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF
The game starts at Tomorrow 9:05am PDT so enter before then.
Here is the most expensive player at each position.
P: Roy Halladay - 9,700
C: Joe Mauer - 4,000
1B: Albert Pujols - 3,900
2B: Chase Utley - 4,000
SS: Hanley Ramirez - 3,900
3B: Placido Polanco - 3,700
LF: Matt Holliday - 3,900
CF: Vernon Wells - 3,700
RF: Nelson Cruz - 4,100
This team's salary would add up to 40,900. So, you'd have you figure out how to save 5,900 somehow. It seems that the salaries are based off season expectations, reputations, season stats, and match-ups. I definitely haven't analyzed it much, but not sure why the starting pitchers for tomorrow aren't the most expensive. There's plenty of question marks on the prices, but I'm assuming they have some system to figure that out.
I guess the real question mark is can you pick your team better than the other person?
The other version is an Autopick draft version, where you rank your players and then the computer picks players in a snake order. You still need 1 player at each position in this case.
You can also do 5 or 10 player leagues in each sport. For this situation it appears to only be salary cap and not autopick draft. For these leagues, only the winner wins money, still 90% of the total bet, so $22.50 for $5 bet and $45 for $10 bet.
According to the leaderboard on the site, "kaiseroll13" has won 321 games already and has winnings of $5,364.
I find this fascinating that you can bet on DAILY fantasy baseball. Opening Monday to Closing Sunday minus 3 days for All-Star break is 178 days. Assuming you always picked the right team and the crappy opponent, even with betting only $5 a day you could win $712 over the course of a season.
I haven't gone through the deposit system so I don't quite understand the Bonus deposit amounts yet. If you can deposit $10 and get $5 in return, could you take out $15 then? Assuming they've had that figured out, what about the percentage of bonus you get. 10-5, 25-10, 100-20 doesn't make sense. The less you deposit the larger percentage bonus you get. Donate $100 and your balance would be $120, but donate $10 10 times and your balance would be $150.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments. Thanks to Chad Millman and his blog for the tip.
Monday, April 12, 2010
First Game of the Year
Monday, March 29, 2010
2010 MLB Player Prop Bets - Using Fangraph's Projections
FanGraphs.com has a large amount of stats from the past and present. It also has projections from various sources for the 2010 season. Many have been using these projections to talk about the season many fantasy players will have or how teams will do. One of the projection systems used is called the "CHONE" projection system, which is done by Sean Smith. It is a respected system that has been around for a few years. Another new system this year is the "Fans" system, whereby users of the site were able to submit their expectations for the season. The system will test out the theory that the average of the group will be closest to the right answer. There are plenty of objections and things possibly wrong with it, but it is still interesting to explore. For example of all the projections, look at this page for the Chase Utley stats and projections.
I want to look at possible prop bets for the 2010 season and see if these projection systems point out any worthwhile bets. I took the prop bets from SportsBook.com and put them into excel with the projections to compare the predictions. There are two separate sheets in the file, one for pitcher prop bets and one for hitter prop bets. There are 3 main stats I'm including:
"Sportsbook Amount" - which is the Over/Under amount for each prop bet.
"Chone Projection" - which is the amount the Chone system predicts.
"Fan Projection" - which is the amount the Fan system predicts.
I took the average of the Chone and Fan systems, which may or may not be useful since most of the fan predictions seem to be a bit high.
Finally, the other columns are percentage differences between each category.
I sorted the column by the largest percent difference between the Prop amount and the average amount.
I want to look at possible prop bets for the 2010 season and see if these projection systems point out any worthwhile bets. I took the prop bets from SportsBook.com and put them into excel with the projections to compare the predictions. There are two separate sheets in the file, one for pitcher prop bets and one for hitter prop bets. There are 3 main stats I'm including:
"Sportsbook Amount" - which is the Over/Under amount for each prop bet.
"Chone Projection" - which is the amount the Chone system predicts.
"Fan Projection" - which is the amount the Fan system predicts.
I took the average of the Chone and Fan systems, which may or may not be useful since most of the fan predictions seem to be a bit high.
Finally, the other columns are percentage differences between each category.
I sorted the column by the largest percent difference between the Prop amount and the average amount.
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Sweet 16 Betting Lines
All the Thursday games.
(1) Syracuse vs (5) Butler - 7:07pm
(2) West Virginia vs (11) Washington - 7:27pm
(2) Kansas State vs (6) Xavier - 9:37pm
(1) Kentucky vs (12) Cornell - 9:57pm
All the Friday Game
(2) Ohio State vs (6) Tennessee - 7:07pm
(3) Baylor vs (10) St. Mary's - 7:27pm
(5) Michigan State vs (9) Northern Iowa - 9:37pm
(1) Duke vs (4) Purdue - 9:57pm
The second set of games each day will probably start later than above, but the first games will start at the time listed. Get your bets in on time.
Let's look at the lines:
Spread - Favorite Team (Avg PPG) (Moneyline) - Underdog (Avg PPG) (Moneyline) - Total - Notes about NCAA tournament
6 - Syracuse (81.6) (-270) vs Butler (69.8) (+230) - 138.5 - Syracuse ATS W both games
4 - West Virginia (72.9) (-190) vs Washington (79.9) (+165) - 142 - WVU ATS W and Total Under both games.
4.5 - Kansas State (79.8) (-220) vs Xavier (79.3) (+180) - 153.5 - KState ATS W and Total Under both games.
8.5 - Kentucky (80.1) (-500) vs Cornell (75.8) (+400) - 147 - Kent ATS W and Total Over both games
4.5 - Ohio State (74.1) (-210) vs Tennessee (73.6) (+175) - 134 -
4.5 - Baylor (77.3) (-200) vs St. Mary's (79.4) (+170) -145 -
1 - Michigan State (72.9) (N/A) vs Northern Iowa (63.6) (N/A) - 121 -
8 - Duke (77.6) (-410) vs Purdue (70.9) (+325) - 129.5 - Duke ATS W and Total Under both games
More info:
-If you like Cornell, bet early. The line started higher and is climbing down. The public is jumping on Cornell's bandwagon. Most expect Kentucky to win this game and Cornell to cover.
-The WVU line will change tomorrow with news of Truck Byrant's broken ankle and for good reason. Many have pointed to WVU not having a great true point guard and now they'll be saying even more about that. But as the John gasaway at Basketball Prospectus have mentioned, it hasn't affected WVU and they control the ball well. If you still believe WVU will stay true to that then wait because the line is going to get smaller.
-Yes, Kalin Lucas is definitely out and yes that matters. You decide how much it matters, the guys making the lines have thought about this, you're not tricking them.
-Don't try to tease anything. If you don't like the spread, then take the moneyline. Play single games by themselves.
For all your stats needs, go here: statsheet.com/mcb
For all your betting line trends, go here: covers.com (click around there, lots of interesting info)
To make all your bets...well that's illegal, check out covers.com to see where to bet.
What my choices are right now:
-Syracuse is going to the next round, not sure about the points. Go with a moneyline bet now in case the spread gets larger and if the spread gets smaller cancel your moneyline bet and go with the spread.
-WVU with the spread, but wait for the spread to go down some because of the injury.
-Take the points with Cornell (or the moneyline) just to make watching the game more fun (No don't do that, that's a bad reason to make a bet).
-I don't know which way the OSU-Tenn line will go, but I like OSU to win. Not sure if they will cover though.
-Give Tom Izzo a week to figure out how to gather his team without Kalin Lucas. Will that be enough?
-Duke looks to advance and so the line will probably increase as the country believes that.
-If you think Purdue can hang with Duke, then pick the Over, otherwise if it is a blowout by Duke then I think it'll be better to go with the Under because that'll mean Purdue isn't scoring.
What bets are you making? Put it in the comments.
(1) Syracuse vs (5) Butler - 7:07pm
(2) West Virginia vs (11) Washington - 7:27pm
(2) Kansas State vs (6) Xavier - 9:37pm
(1) Kentucky vs (12) Cornell - 9:57pm
All the Friday Game
(2) Ohio State vs (6) Tennessee - 7:07pm
(3) Baylor vs (10) St. Mary's - 7:27pm
(5) Michigan State vs (9) Northern Iowa - 9:37pm
(1) Duke vs (4) Purdue - 9:57pm
The second set of games each day will probably start later than above, but the first games will start at the time listed. Get your bets in on time.
Let's look at the lines:
Spread - Favorite Team (Avg PPG) (Moneyline) - Underdog (Avg PPG) (Moneyline) - Total - Notes about NCAA tournament
6 - Syracuse (81.6) (-270) vs Butler (69.8) (+230) - 138.5 - Syracuse ATS W both games
4 - West Virginia (72.9) (-190) vs Washington (79.9) (+165) - 142 - WVU ATS W and Total Under both games.
4.5 - Kansas State (79.8) (-220) vs Xavier (79.3) (+180) - 153.5 - KState ATS W and Total Under both games.
8.5 - Kentucky (80.1) (-500) vs Cornell (75.8) (+400) - 147 - Kent ATS W and Total Over both games
4.5 - Ohio State (74.1) (-210) vs Tennessee (73.6) (+175) - 134 -
4.5 - Baylor (77.3) (-200) vs St. Mary's (79.4) (+170) -145 -
1 - Michigan State (72.9) (N/A) vs Northern Iowa (63.6) (N/A) - 121 -
8 - Duke (77.6) (-410) vs Purdue (70.9) (+325) - 129.5 - Duke ATS W and Total Under both games
More info:
-If you like Cornell, bet early. The line started higher and is climbing down. The public is jumping on Cornell's bandwagon. Most expect Kentucky to win this game and Cornell to cover.
-The WVU line will change tomorrow with news of Truck Byrant's broken ankle and for good reason. Many have pointed to WVU not having a great true point guard and now they'll be saying even more about that. But as the John gasaway at Basketball Prospectus have mentioned, it hasn't affected WVU and they control the ball well. If you still believe WVU will stay true to that then wait because the line is going to get smaller.
-Yes, Kalin Lucas is definitely out and yes that matters. You decide how much it matters, the guys making the lines have thought about this, you're not tricking them.
-Don't try to tease anything. If you don't like the spread, then take the moneyline. Play single games by themselves.
For all your stats needs, go here: statsheet.com/mcb
For all your betting line trends, go here: covers.com (click around there, lots of interesting info)
To make all your bets...well that's illegal, check out covers.com to see where to bet.
What my choices are right now:
-Syracuse is going to the next round, not sure about the points. Go with a moneyline bet now in case the spread gets larger and if the spread gets smaller cancel your moneyline bet and go with the spread.
-WVU with the spread, but wait for the spread to go down some because of the injury.
-Take the points with Cornell (or the moneyline) just to make watching the game more fun (No don't do that, that's a bad reason to make a bet).
-I don't know which way the OSU-Tenn line will go, but I like OSU to win. Not sure if they will cover though.
-Give Tom Izzo a week to figure out how to gather his team without Kalin Lucas. Will that be enough?
-Duke looks to advance and so the line will probably increase as the country believes that.
-If you think Purdue can hang with Duke, then pick the Over, otherwise if it is a blowout by Duke then I think it'll be better to go with the Under because that'll mean Purdue isn't scoring.
What bets are you making? Put it in the comments.
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