USA Wins Group C

Well, only one scenario could play out.  And for a long time it looked like it'd be the one where the USA was sent home, but Tim Howard sent a great pass out to Landon Donovan, then to Jozy Altidore, a shot off the Algerian keeper by Clint Dempsey, and a rebound right to Donovan who calmly kicked it to the back of the net.  After watching it hit the net, Donovan ran over to the  sideline and headfirst slid right in front of the corner flag and was mobbed by his teammates.

The game was a huge struggle, tons of missed chances, some possible referee missed calls, but none of that mattered in the end.  The offsides was huge, could have saved the USA a lot of headache.  The play where Dempsey got smacked in the face and walked away bleeding looked bad on the replay.  Watching live it didn't seem to bad, but the replay showed the Algerian player clearly smacking Dempsey in the face, that's no good and needs to be called.  I was worried for Dempsey when I saw that and afraid he wasn't going to make it back out for the rest of the game.  The style of play by the Algerians was also very frustrating in the 2nd half.  Did Algeria want to win or did they just not want the USA to win?  It was a funny storyline how Algeria was wronged in 1982, it was crazy watching the scoreboard of the 2 games, hoping someone would score.  A USA goal meant USA won the group, and a Slovenia goal (draw) meant USA advanced as the runner-up.

Everyone in America was preparing to fire off about Team USA, give up, complain, go back to baseball, talk about basketball, or even tennis.  The journalists were ready to blast the team for not scoring when they needed to, for missing their opportunities, etc.  All hope for American soccer seemed lost.  Everyone said USA had a great team and they should be expected to do well, but a disappointing knock-out in the group stage would have erased all that and all the advancements this team has made in the last 2 years would have been lost.

I went to see USA play Turkey in their last tune-up in America in Philadelphia and I loved it. The crowd was awesome, the team was awesome.  I thought they might just jog around, knowing the game didn't really matter, but they played hard and showed us fans they were ready to do something great.  I'm happy they pulled out the win and this tournament isn't over for this team.

I never had a strong opinion for or against Landon Donovan.  I figured I didn't know enough about soccer to give a strong opinion one way or the other.  But now, I don't care, Donovan is a great leader and he has come through in the crucial times for this team.  I screamed when he passed that ball off to Jozy, I thought he should take it in all the way, but he knew what he was doing, and the ball ended up back at his feet and he scored, allowing us all to celebrate.

Next up on Saturday at 2:30pm EST, is the runner-up of Group D.  Don't quit know USA, this team has only just started. They got off to a slow start, but they should have it figured out now.  Two full days of rest and then delight Americans again on an awesome Saturday afternoon.

Group C: One game to go. What's the Scenario?

Here are the standings for Group C:

Team	GP	Wins	Loss	Draw	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Differential	Points So Far	Points Available
Slovenia	2	1	0	1	3	2	+1	4	3
USA	2	0	0	2	3	3	0	2	3
England	2	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	3
Algeria	2	0	1	1	0	1	-1	1	3

On Wednesday at 10am EST, USA vs Algeria and England vs Slovenia.
The top two teams in the group advance.
Standings are based on total points.
The first tiebreaker is goal differential.
The second tiebreaker is total number of goals scored.
The third tiebreaker is greatest number of points in the game between tied teams.
The fourth tiebreaker is goal differential in game against tied team.
The fifth tiebreak is greatest number of goals scored against tied team.

Now every team is still alive, thanks to the Algeria-England draw.

USA wins against Algeria:

1. If USA wins and Slovenia beats England, USA will be the 2nd seed out of Group C (Slovenia the 1st seed).
2. If USA wins and England ties Slovenia, USA will advance.  The 1st seed between USA and Slovenia, will be the team that scores more goals in their game.  (So a 2-2 Slovenia tie and 1-0 USA win, means Slovenia will be 1st seed)
3. If USA wins and England beats Slovenia, USA and England will advance.  USA will be the 1st seed unless England scores 2 more goals than USA in their win.

USA ties Algeria:

1. If USA ties and Slovenia beats England, USA will be the 2nd seed out of Group C.
2. If USA ties and England ties Slovenia, USA and England will be tied in points.  The team that scores more goals in their game will advance.
3. If USA ties and England beats Slovenia, USA will be eliminated. 

USA loses to Algeria:

1. If USA loses and Slovenia beats England, USA will be eliminated.
2. If USA loses and England ties Slovenia, USA will be eliminated.
3. If USA loses and England beats Slovenia, USA will be eliminated.

Now USA wants to be the 1st seed out of Group C, so that they don't have to face Germany in the next round (or the team that tops Germany!).

What to root for:
A USA win and England tie or win.
A USA tie and England tie or loss.

Group C: How Can Team USA advance

I'm not a soccer analyst and I'm not going to try to be.  USA just tied Slovenia 2-2, in their second game.  The result keeps USA alive, but it puts USA in a tough situation. England and Algeria have yet to play today and that affects everything a lot, but lets analyze the standing as of now.

Standings as of right now (12pm June 18):

Team	GP	Wins	Loss	Draw	Points So Far	Points Available
Slovenia	2	1	0	1	4	3
USA	2	0	0	2	2	3
England	1	0	0	1	1	6
Algeria	1	0	1	0	0	6

Standings if England wins later today:

Team	GP	Wins	Loss	Draw	Points So Far	Points Available
Slovenia	2	1	0	1	4	3
England	2	1	0	1	4	3
USA	2	0	0	2	2	3
Algeria	2	0	2	0	0	3

If England beats Slovenia, then USA advances with a win.
If Slovenia beats England, then USA advances with a win.
If England and Slovenia draw, then USA must win and win the tiebreaker.

Standings if England ties later today:

Team	GP	Wins	Loss	Draw	Points So Far	Points Available
Slovenia	2	1	0	1	4	3
USA	2	0	0	2	2	3
England	2	0	0	2	2	3
Algeria	2	0	1	1	1	3

If England beats Slovenia, then USA advances with a win.
If Slovenia beats England, then USA advances with just a draw.
If England and Slovenia draw, then USA advances with a win, or advances with a draw and winning the tiebreaker.

Is scoring down for the World Cup so far?

I've heard a lot of talk about how scoring is down and what it means so far. The problem I saw was that everyone was citing numbers for average goals per game over the course of the entire tournament.  It could be possible that goals per game is different for the team's first game. I only looked at the last 5 World Cups (back to 1990).


World Cup: Average Goals Through Each Team's 1st Game

Average	2010	2006	2002	1998	1994	1990
Goals Per Game	1.563	2.438	2.875	2.313	2.500	2.250
Goal Differential	0.938	1.438	1.500	1.063	1.333	1.417

2010 is the first year where the average goal differential is less than 1 and the average total number of goals per game is less than 2.  The past years were somewhat skewed by some large wins by some of the better nations that haven't really happened this year (except Germany).

What will happen from here on out? Hopefully more scoring. Your ideas in the comments on why the scoring is down, please.

New Philly.com FanDuel Fantasy Sports Gambling Website

Philly.com, the home of the Philadelphia Inquirer and Philadelphia Daily News and the main place Delaware Valley residents go for their sports news has new website up and running called fanduel.philly.com.

Deposit amounts: Free (Practice Games only) - $10 +$5 Bonus - $25 +$10 - $100 + $20
You can withdraw your winnings (or leftovers) at any time.

You bet $5 to win $9. Meaning in a Head-to-Head game, you and one other person put in $5, meaning there is $10 on the game.  The winner of the game gets 90% of the amount bet, or $9. The House (Philly.com and/or FanDuel.com) gets 10% of the amount gambled, or $1.  The reason this is legal is because it's fantasy sports and fantasy sports are considered gambling because they require skill.

Right now there are MLB, NHL, and NBA games. Each game takes only 1 day to play. Only stats from one day of play is counted.  Here are the rules for MLB:

Pick a team of 9 players from the following games:
TEX @ CLE 9:05am PDT
ANA @ NYY 4:05pm PDT
MIL @ CHC 11:20am PDT
BOS @ MIN 10:10am PDT
HOU @ STL 10:40am PDT
NYM @ COL 12:10pm PDT
ARI @ LOS 7:10pm PDT
WAS @ PHI 12:05pm PDT
ATL @ SDP 3:35pm PDT
CWS @ TOR 4:07pm PDT
CIN @ FLA 4:10pm PDT
BAL @ OAK 7:05pm PDT
If your team scores more fantasy points than your opponent's, you win!
Each player has a salary, and you only have $35k to spend.
You must pick the following positions: P, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF
The game starts at Tomorrow 9:05am PDT so enter before then.

There are 12 games tomorrow and this list includes all 12 games.  You have to pick 9 players, 1 at each position.  You have to set your roster before the first game of the day starts. If your roster scores more fantasy points than the other guy you win.  You have a salary cap of $35,000, which comes out to $3,889 per player.
Here is the most expensive player at each position.
P: Roy Halladay - 9,700
C: Joe Mauer - 4,000
1B: Albert Pujols - 3,900
2B: Chase Utley - 4,000
SS: Hanley Ramirez - 3,900
3B: Placido Polanco - 3,700
LF: Matt Holliday - 3,900
CF: Vernon Wells - 3,700
RF: Nelson Cruz - 4,100
This team's salary would add up to 40,900. So, you'd have you figure out how to save 5,900 somehow.  It seems that the salaries are based off season expectations, reputations, season stats, and match-ups. I definitely haven't analyzed it much, but not sure why the starting pitchers for tomorrow aren't the most expensive.  There's plenty of question marks on the prices, but I'm assuming they have some system to figure that out.

I guess the real question mark is can you pick your team better than the other person?

The other version is an Autopick draft version, where you rank your players and then the computer picks players in a snake order. You still need 1 player at each position in this case.

You can also do 5 or 10 player leagues in each sport.  For this situation it appears to only be salary cap and not autopick draft.  For these leagues, only the winner wins money, still 90% of the total bet, so $22.50 for $5 bet and $45 for $10 bet.

According to the leaderboard on the site, "kaiseroll13" has won 321 games already and has winnings of $5,364.

I find this fascinating that you can bet on DAILY fantasy baseball. Opening Monday to Closing Sunday minus 3 days for All-Star break is 178 days.  Assuming you always picked the right team and the crappy opponent, even with betting only $5 a day you could win $712 over the course of a season.

I haven't gone through the deposit system so I don't quite understand the Bonus deposit amounts yet.  If you can deposit $10 and get $5 in return, could you take out $15 then?  Assuming they've had that figured out, what about the percentage of bonus you get. 10-5, 25-10, 100-20 doesn't make sense.  The less you deposit the larger percentage bonus you get. Donate $100 and your balance would be $120, but donate $10 10 times and your balance would be $150.

Let me know your thoughts in the comments. Thanks to Chad Millman and his blog for the tip.

First Game of the Year

I went to the game last Thursday, down in DC. I understand that for the first 2 games of the series the crowd was more Phillies fans than Nationals fans.  In terms of loudness, Philly fans may have won, but in numbers there were probably more Nats fans for this 4:30pm start time game.  The weather was supposed to be bad, but it ended up being great and it didn't rain until probably 45 minutes after the game had ended.  Snuck down way lower than we were supposed to be sitting and greatly enjoyed the game, despite the fact that the Phillies lost.  Kyle Kendrick didn't look to good and the hitting wasn't the same as it had been the other games so far this season, but overall nothing too bad to complain about.  Congrats to the Nationals on their first win of the season and you could tell the fans were desperate for it, they actually got louder than the Phillies fan after the final out of the game.  Good luck to them and I hope they do better than the Mets and beat up on the rest of the NL East.  I won't be back in Philly until at least late May so this was one of my few opportunities to see the Phils in action.  Now its time to catch some cheap Orioles games.

2010 MLB Player Prop Bets - Using Fangraph's Projections

FanGraphs.com has a large amount of stats from the past and present.  It also has projections from various sources for the 2010 season.  Many have been using these projections to talk about the season many fantasy players will have or how teams will do.  One of the projection systems used is called the "CHONE" projection system, which is done by Sean Smith.  It is a respected system that has been around for a few years.  Another new system this year is the "Fans" system, whereby users of the site were able to submit their expectations for the season.  The system will test out the theory that the average of the group will be closest to the right answer.  There are plenty of objections and things possibly wrong with it, but it is still interesting to explore.  For example of all the projections, look at this page for the Chase Utley stats and projections.
I want to look at possible prop bets for the 2010 season and see if these projection systems point out any worthwhile bets.  I took the prop bets from SportsBook.com and put them into excel with the projections to compare the predictions.  There are two separate sheets in the file, one for pitcher prop bets and one for hitter prop bets. There are 3 main stats I'm including:
"Sportsbook Amount" - which is the Over/Under amount for each prop bet.
"Chone Projection" - which is the amount the Chone system predicts.
"Fan Projection" - which is the amount the Fan system predicts.
I took the average of the Chone and Fan systems, which may or may not be useful since most of the fan predictions seem to be a bit high.
Finally, the other columns are percentage differences between each category.
I sorted the column by the largest percent difference between the Prop amount and the average amount.

Sweet 16 Betting Lines

All the Thursday games.
(1) Syracuse vs (5) Butler - 7:07pm
(2) West Virginia vs (11) Washington - 7:27pm
(2) Kansas State vs (6) Xavier - 9:37pm
(1) Kentucky vs (12) Cornell - 9:57pm

All the Friday Game
(2) Ohio State vs (6) Tennessee - 7:07pm
(3) Baylor vs (10) St. Mary's - 7:27pm
(5) Michigan State vs (9) Northern Iowa - 9:37pm
(1) Duke vs (4) Purdue - 9:57pm


The second set of games each day will probably start later than above, but the first games will start at the time listed. Get your bets in on time.

Let's look at the lines:
Spread - Favorite Team (Avg PPG) (Moneyline) - Underdog (Avg PPG) (Moneyline) - Total - Notes about NCAA tournament
6 - Syracuse (81.6) (-270) vs Butler (69.8) (+230) - 138.5 - Syracuse ATS W both games
4 - West Virginia (72.9) (-190) vs Washington (79.9) (+165) - 142 - WVU ATS W and Total Under both games.
4.5 - Kansas State (79.8) (-220) vs Xavier (79.3) (+180) - 153.5 - KState ATS W and Total Under both games.
8.5 - Kentucky (80.1) (-500) vs Cornell (75.8) (+400) - 147 - Kent ATS W and Total Over both games
4.5 - Ohio State (74.1) (-210) vs Tennessee (73.6) (+175) - 134 -
4.5 - Baylor (77.3) (-200) vs St. Mary's (79.4) (+170) -145 -
1 - Michigan State (72.9) (N/A) vs Northern Iowa (63.6) (N/A) - 121 - 
8 - Duke (77.6) (-410) vs Purdue (70.9) (+325) - 129.5 -  Duke ATS W and Total Under both games

More info:
-If you like Cornell, bet early. The line started higher and is climbing down. The public is jumping on Cornell's bandwagon.  Most expect Kentucky to win this game and Cornell to cover.
-The WVU line will change tomorrow with news of Truck Byrant's broken ankle and for good reason.  Many have pointed to WVU not having a great true point guard and now they'll be saying even more about that.  But as the John gasaway at Basketball Prospectus have mentioned, it hasn't affected WVU and they control the ball well.  If you still believe WVU will stay true to that then wait because the line is going to get smaller.
-Yes, Kalin Lucas is definitely out and yes that matters. You decide how much it matters, the guys making the lines have thought about this, you're not tricking them.
-Don't try to tease anything. If you don't like the spread, then take the moneyline. Play single games by themselves.

For all your stats needs, go here: statsheet.com/mcb
For all your betting line trends, go here: covers.com (click around there, lots of interesting info)
To make all your bets...well that's illegal, check out covers.com to see where to bet.

What my choices are right now:
-Syracuse is going to the next round, not sure about the points. Go with a moneyline bet now in case the spread gets larger and if the spread gets smaller cancel your moneyline bet and go with the spread.
-WVU with the spread, but wait for the spread to go down some because of the injury.
-Take the points with Cornell (or the moneyline) just to make watching the game more fun (No don't do that, that's a bad reason to make a bet).
-I don't know which way the OSU-Tenn line will go, but I like OSU to win. Not sure if they will cover though.
-Give Tom Izzo a week to figure out how to gather his team without Kalin Lucas.  Will that be enough?
-Duke looks to advance and so the line will probably increase as the country believes that.
-If you think Purdue can hang with Duke, then pick the Over, otherwise if it is a blowout by Duke then I think it'll be better to go with the Under because that'll mean Purdue isn't scoring.

What bets are you making? Put it in the comments.

Philadelphia Union Inaguaral Season 2010

I don't know much about the MLS, but I am now interested because of the Philadelphia Union.  They Union will be playing their home games in Chester, PA, not far from my home.  The combination of cheap tickets, nearby location, and soccer played in our time zone makes me think I will be a fan of this team.  I don't much about soccer players so I won't comment on any predictions for the team.

Having lived near Chester most of my life though I have some doubts that the stadium and infrastructure within and around it will be fully prepared for the season.  I wish no injuries, robberies, or poor service to anyone, but I do hope all fans and the city is preparing for the situation.
The stadium holds up to 18,500 for soccer games. There is also a $500 million waterfront revitalization project called "KickStart Chester".

The first game is this Thursday, March 25th at Seattle Sounders on ESPN2 at 9:30pm.
The home opener is Saturday, April 10 against DC United at The Linc at 6:00pm.
The first home game in Chester is expected to be Sunday, June 27 at 5:00pm against Seattle Sounders.
Here is the full schedule.

Also, check out the team's Facebook page. It has been full of a lot of useful information since the team's inception.

Sports Illustrated Steve Davis predicts the Union to finish last (8th) in the Eastern Conference and says to expect "some lumps along the way" as the Union build up with talented youth.

I'm not sure where the best place will be to stay up to date with the team will be, but Philly.com isn't a bad idea.  I imagine they will have the best "traditional" coverage.
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/soccer/

As for blogs, I don't know of any specific blog that plans to cover the Union in depth, so let me know if there are any and I will list them here. Otherwise don't forget to check out these guys:
The 700 Level
Phinally Philly
Goal.com

edit: found some more info
Just found a much better preview for the team at Goal.com.MLS 2010 Team Preview: Philadelphia Union 
That preview highlights the possible starting lineup, gives some info about many of the players and the coach, and also says the team has a chance to sneak into the playoffs.  Read it as you are wondering who each of the players are. 

Underclassmen Knock-outs

Stolen from the bottom of Andy Katz's Daily Word:

So from the teams that have lost, who has to make decisions about leaving for the NBA or at least testing the draft for a week?

Kansas: Cole Aldrich and Xavier Henry.

Georgetown: Greg Monroe

Georgia Tech: Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors.

Gonzaga: Elias Harris.

Florida State: Solomon Alabi.

UTEP: Derrick Caracter.

BYU: Jimmer Fredette

Texas: Avery Bradley and Jordan Hamilton.

These guys all lost and so they don't have any more opportunities to show themselves to scouts. Let's see what Chad Ford says about these guys.
Favors: "Is he raw? Sure. But if he had a point guard who could get him the ball, he would dominate."
Monroe: "those who question Monroe's heartbeat just got more ammunition. He's too content to blend when he needs to carry...His draft stock is as high as it's going to get."
Fredette: "His first game had shades of Stephen Curry at Davidson two years ago. But Kansas State slowed him down considerably in the second round. More damning was Fredette's defense, or lack thereof. Some NBA scouts see him as a late first-round pick. I think late second round is more realistic."
Harris: "if he declares, I think he secured himself a first-round pick with this tournament performance."

From the rankings:
Name (class) - Draft Position
Aldrich (junior) - Top 10
Henry (freshman) - Late lottery to mid first round
Monroe (sophomore) - Lottery
Lawal (junior) - Late first to early second
Favors (freshman) - Top 5
Harris (freshman) - Mid to late first round
Alabi (sophomore) - Late lottery to mid first round
Caracter (junior) - Second round to undrafted
Fredette (junior) - Second round to undrafted
Bradley (freshman) - Late lottery to mid first round
Hamilton (freshman) - Late first to early second

These rankings are likely not updated in a few weeks so this is where they were before.  If you think any of them have changed greatly post it in the comments.

The general rule of thumb is don't go pro unless you know you'll get drafted in the first round.  If any of them stay it would be a huge benefit to their teams for next year, but wait and listen.

Villanova's Future

Villanova lost yesterday to St. Mary's in the Second Round.  The Wildcats had been struggling for weeks and their problems finally caught up to them in an elimination game.  I thought that the scare against Robert Morris in the First Round might energize them to fix their problems and get it together.  But it didn't happen.  And while for Nova's sake Kansas lost yesterday as well, taking the national spotlight away from them.  The spotlight is still very much on them though in Philadelphia. Temple lost to Cornell, but Cornell is a very excellent team and Temple had a great season winning the A-10 tournament.  Expectations are higher for Villanova and Scottie Reynolds ended his career in a manner no one would have predicted if you asked them at the start of the season.

Villanova will lose Scottie Reynolds and Reggie Redding, two great players that contributed a lot to the Wildcats.  In a future post though I'll highlight why I think Villanova will be even better next year.

Hint: Corey and big men.

For now enjoy the tournament and root for the team of your choosing. Enjoy the John Wall show while it lasts.  I'll be rooting for Ohio State and West Virginia.

Bye Bye Kansas

Haven't posted much recently (check out my twitter, always active there), but my last post was praising the Kansas Jayhawks who yesterday were knocked out of the tournament.  It was an amazing game, Sherron Collins really had a tough day and Kansas just wasn't scoring like they are used to.  Check out the roster breakdown I posted and you'll see that despite losing a few guys to the NBA and graduation Kansas will still be good next year.

The Blue Chip Loaded Roster of the Kansas Jayhawks

The 2009-2010 Kansas Jayhawks are one of the best teams in the country this season because of the combination of great returning stars and new freshmen to the team.  With apparent reports of G Tyshawn Taylor saying on facebook he wants to transfer, let's look at the roster of this team.
In 2008-2009, the Jayhawks went 25-7 (14-2 in Big 12) and were the regular season champs of the Big 12 conference.  They were upset in the conference tournament in their first game to Baylor.  In the NCAA tournament, they were a 3 seed that lost in the sweet sixteen to the 2 seed, Michigan State.  All in all a pretty good season for Bill Self, considering they lost to the eventual tournament runner up. 
So far in 2009-2010, the Jayhawks are 17-1 (3-0 in Big 12) with their one loss being a surprise upset at Tennessee.  They still have to play Texas and Kansas State twice, but let's look at this team anyway, who is expected to go far in the NCAA tournament.
2009-2010
Starters:
G Fr. Xavier Henry
G Sr. Sherron Collins
G So Tyshawn Taylor
F So. Marcus Morris
C Jr. Cole Aldrich
Bench: (all player getting more than 5 mpg)
F So. Markieff Morris
G Jr. Brady Morningstar 
G Jr. Tyrel Reed
F Fr. Thomas Robinson
G Fr. Elijah Johnson
G Fr. C.J. Henry
G Jr. Conner Teahan

Taylor may lose his starting spot to Morningstar, but that is not yet definite.  So they have 12 players, including 4 freshmen averaging more than 5 minutes a game so far this season.  Coach Self is splitting the minutes up to everyone pretty fairly then it seems.

Let's look back at last year's team.
2008-2009
Starters:
Brady Morningstar

Sherron Collins
Tyshawn Taylor
Marcus Morris
Cole Aldrich
Bench:
Markieff Morris
Tyrel Reed
G Jr. Mario Little
G Fr. Travis Releford
F Fr. Quintrell Thomas

Thomas transferred to UNLV.  Releford and Little haven't played a minute yet this season.  Morningstar has seen his minutes and role decreased, although now as the tougher part of the season approaches his minutes may rise.  If it wasn't for John Wall, Xavier Henry might have been a more well-known freshmen, regardless he is still having a great season.
This team is basically the same team as last year with a few more pieces added to the puzzle. As long as Bill Self can handle all the players and their minutes this team should be going far into the tournament.

NBA Prospects
According to Chad Ford's Top 100 draft prospects and ESPN Insider rankings, 6 of the Jayhawks could be in the NBA next season.
Cole Aldrich is ranked as Ford's 7th best prospect.
Xavier Henry is ranked as Ford's 8th best prospect.
Sherron Collins is ranked as Ford's 4th best point guard (43rd overall).
Tyshawn Taylor is ranked as Ford's 11th best point guard (70th overall).
Marcus Morris is ranked as Ford's 48th best power forward (168th overall).
Thomas Robinson is ranked as Ford's 50th best power forward (172nd overall).

Collins will be graduating and is likely to get drafted and Henry and Aldrich are both likely to leave as well.  Taylor could test the waters, but should stick around for another year and get some more playing time.

So, all college basketball fans, enjoy Collins leading this team for a final time and Aldrich being that great center for one last season.  The expectations are high and this team can live up to the expectations.

Who is ESPN the Mag's NFL Player X?

First of all if you are a subscriber of ESPN the Magazine I hope you enjoy reading the articles by "Player X".  He is a player in the NFL and has written 10 different articles for the Mag.  I know not everyone is an ESPN Insider so as I'm rereading I'll highlight some of the hints as to who exactly Player X is.
Before I get into it, let me first say I really enjoy the articles so I'm not trying to "out" him or anything, this is just a fun little exercise to see if this anonymous author gave away a few too many hints.
So think of the stars on different teams and as I eliminate teams, we'll see if we can figure out which star he is.

Meet Player X:
- not Ben Roethlisberger.

Vick deserves right to play:
-he believe's Vick deserved a shot to play, does that eliminate anyone?

NFL rookie hazing has purpose:
-he likes rookie hazing and says it has a purpose, so he's not an Eagle? Any other teams?

Currency of pain:
-he's not Carson Palmer
-he's been around long enough to remember the days when it was easier for players to get painkillers.
-he's not Brett Favre
-he's not Hines Ward
-he's been injured. wait, that doesn't eliminate anyone.

Team chemistry overrated:
-he's not Chad OchoCinco
-he's not Terrell Owens
-he played in college

How to spot a contender:
-he's not on the Colts or Texans
-he's not on the Ravens or Steelers, but watches tape of them
-he's not Troy Polamalu or James Harrison
-he's not on the Saints
-"My team lost a division game this year (so now you know I'm not on the Colts or Saints)"
-he has made the playoffs (not on the Texans).

It's mailbag time:
-he's not on the Raiders
-"I know I'm better than a couple of guys at my position who are paid more than me". so he's not the highest paid at his position
-not Chad Pennington or Chad Henne. but maybe he played with them since he think they are funny. also says Ochocinoc and Brett Favre are funny too.
-He's not Donovan McNabb, but that's fine since I already eliminated the Eagles.

Tiger shoulda known:
-he's not Tom Brady
-he has endorsement contracts, doesn't eliminate much
-he's not Peyton Manning

10 NFL playoff lessons:
-he's been far in the playoffs (whatever far is we can say that means his team made it to the final 8)
-he's not Kurt Warner
-he's an old enough veteran to call out/joke with rookies (probably doesn't mean much)


Gun culture changing in NFL:
-he has bought a gun

So, basically I skipped a lot of maybe hints and just went for what seemed like definite stuff about Player X and we still don't much about who it is.  Teams I eliminated: Eagles, Raiders, Ravens, Steelers, Texans, Colts, Saints.  That still leaves a lot of options, hopefully we get some more hints in a few more articles from Player X.  If you have any hints, tips, or opinions add them in the comments.

Phillies Pitchers in 2010 and beyond

I like my post about the entire roster of the Phillies, but this is just to keep track of the starting pitchers (taken from my post about the Roy Halladay signing).  Again, mostly all thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts.


2010: Halladay ($15.75), Cole Hamels ($6.65), Blanton ($7), J.A. Happ ($0.405), Jamie Moyer ($6.5)
2011: Halladay ($20), Hamels ($9.5), Blanton ($8.5), J.A. Happ
2012: Halladay ($20), Hamels ($9.5+arbitration), Blanton ($8.5), J.A. Happ
2013: Halladay ($20), J.A. Happ
2014: Halladay ($20)

-Halladay's 2014 option will likely vest as long as there aren't any major injuries.
-This season will do a lot determine the long term prospects of Hamels, if he performs it is likely that the Phillies will want to lock him up even longer.
-So long to Cliff Lee, Brett Myers, Pedro Martinez, and Chan Ho Park.  They all did pretty well for the Phillies and they will be missed.

-Halladay, Hamels, and Blanton are locked up through 2012 together, get used to them folks.

It wouldn't be surprising nor would it be a bad idea if the Phillies went after another starting pitcher, most people aren't expecting a great year from Jamie Moyer, but crazier things have happened.

Phillies 2010 Player Salaries and Overall Payroll

As of Jan.21, 2010


Thanks to the wonderful website Cot's Baseball Contracts I was able to build this spreadsheet with the Phillies salaries for 2010.  I did this so that we could have an idea of what the owners are seeing on their books and how much flexibility they have with the roster. A few things to take note with this spreadsheet.

• Unless it was done on the Cot's Contracts site, I did not prorate the signing bonus over the life of the contract, I just added it to the first year's salary (since that is when the Phillies will have to pay it).
• Contract Renewals and Arbitration still needs to be decided for many of the younger players, but that will not come until January.  Those players are in italics.
• I haven't included them yet but you can expect a number of other rookies or youngsters to be added to the roster at a salary close to the league minimum ($400,000).

Given all of that and the $6,000,000 from the Blue Jays and the reported desire of the Phillies to keep their payroll below $140,000,000, I believe the Phillies have about $10,000,000 to operate with for the rest of the off-season.  Keep in mind that with another great season expect a lot of raises in arbitration and the possible performance incentive payments.  Any comments or questions feel free to comment or e-mail me.

Updated with announcement of Shane Victorino extension, but don't have details yet.

Roy Halladay Close to Becoming a Phillie

Update: Roy Halladay is a Philadelphia Phillie and we can thank his family partially for that.  Prospects came and went and Roy will be here for at least 4 seasons.  Check out my Google Shared Items over on the right for all the great articles dissecting the deal.  It's the biggest deal of the off-season so everyone has chimed in with their opinion.

Best Sports Commercials

I'm trying to get together some of the best sports commercials, if you have any suggestions tell me in the comments and I'll add them to this post.  Eventually when its grown enough I want to try and rank them, but that's a ways away.

Courage (Nike)

No matter what your opinions are about Nike, everyone has to like this commercial.  If you didn't like this one, you probably won't have similar opinions has me on the rest of these commercials.

Leave Nothing - LT vs Polamalu (Nike)

Probably the best commercial from last year's football season.

My Better is Better (Nike)

Cool commercial for Nike Sparq Training (great equipment). Lots of great athletes in this one.
This is the same commercial, but the 60 second version so it's a bit better.
Here is a second one that is just all trash talk.
Kind of reminds me of UnderArmour, so...

We Must Protect This House (Under Armour)

I think this was the first in a series of now memorable Under Armour commercials, the 'protect this house' series has been really cool and this one started it off.  So you know that reminds me of some good ol' Johns Hopkins Lacrosse guys:
Kyle Harrison - K18 commercial (STX)
Paul Rabil - Cold Abuse Simulator (Under Armour / Dick's)

Terry Tate: Office Linebacker (Reebok)

"You can take the fish out the sea, but you can NEVER take the linebacker out of me!"
I love Terry Tate and there are at least 4 other videos like this, each one is great.

Take It To The Next Level (Nike)

It may be soccer, but its still a cool commercial with lots of famous guys. This is the long version.

TigerWoods - Bouncing the Ball (Nike)

This was a great commercial, that's all there is to say about it.

Charles Barkley and Dwayne Wade - Fave 5 (T-Mobile)

I've stated many times before that I'd love just a Charles Barkley channel on TV and you can see why.

Bo Knows! (Nike)

"Bo, you don't know diddly!"

That's all I got for now, add some in the comments, e-mail me, tell me on twitter, whatever it takes.  I want to get a pretty good list going.  Anyone who knows me knows my love for YouTube, but you can send me links from other sites.  Send me any good commercials or whatever, doesn't have to be just sports.  The only rule I'll say is that part of it has to have appeared on TV.

Back in Action

Going to start posting again on here, we'll see how that goes.
Let me know what you like. There are plenty of blogs and websites out there to give you the news so I won't do that.  Also there is twitter for sending you interesting links, so I won't just post other peoples articles, follow me on twitter if you want that.  I definitely won't be just sports.  I won't kill you with too many posts.  I am still obviously a huge Philly fan so I will definitely have some opinions on Philly sports, but there are other websites much better at that than me.  Let's see where this goes.
http://twitter.com/experienceTed

Going FJM on Mr. Ian O'Connor of foxsports.com

McNabb shows what toughness, resolve can do

I first saw this article thanks to the 700level.com, where Enrico so wonderfully points out some of the major flaws. To quote Enrico, "!@#$#%$#!@#&*@#!$ WHAT?!? @!#@#$@##$!@@#@." As an ode to Fire Joe Morgan and now Big Daddy Drew over at KSK I thought I take a lot at some specific pieces of this article. Here you go:

He has spilled the blood, sweat and tears of a thousand Big 5 players at the Palestra.
Don't forget puke, and also not sure when I've seen him cry (McNabb is not T.O.). Why compare McNabb, the most important player on probably the city's most followed team, to college players. Sure we love the Big 5, but that's college basketball, not the NFL, expectations are a little different. Plus, you are from New York, I doubt you've ever seen a great Big 5 game.


Philadelphia is famous for booing Santa?
Philadelphia is famous for many inappropriate actions. Booing Santa should not be one of them. Also, you missed the better part about Philadelphians throwing snowballs at Santa. Everyone from Philly knows the story and its not that outlandish. Even the guy dressed as Santa that day I think has said he probably would have booed and thrown snowballs at Santa at that game.

I told him that grouping Philadelphia with Boston and New York was like throwing Genghis Khan into the same cell with two guys busted for jaywalking.
In comparison, Philadelphians are like warlords for booing their players when they perform poorly and New York sportswriters are like jaywalkers when they totally crucify every single action of the New York sports figures (can we say A-Rod's personal life).

McNabb still has a chance to go down as the enduring Philly story of 2008.
Now there isn't even an ounce of truth to that statement. For one thing, 2008 is over, he could be the biggest story of 2009. Did you even watch the World Series? Sure the national ratings were horrible, but not here in Philly. Perhaps you caught any of the coverage of the parade? Yea, I'm pretty sure 10 years down the road 2008 will be the year of the Phillies.

In fact, Philadelphia fields the only teams in sports that try to score early to take their own fans out of the game.
I'm not sure I actually understand this sentence. Philadelphia teams don't try to score first because scoring points is how you win games?

But nobody's had more line drives smacked at him than McNabb, whose 10 years in Philly are the equivalent of 20 anywhere else.
So McNabb has been here the longest. Yes, good point that you have already made multiple times. Are you implying that McNabb plays like hes over 40 years old or something with the 20 comment because as he has proved this season, McNabb is not an old man.

This would be the same Landry who in 15 NFL seasons threw for 13,000 fewer yards and nearly 100 fewer touchdowns than McNabb would manage in his first 10.
So McNabb turned into a great QB, maybe some people didn't see that happening. If it proves one thing it sure proves that Greg Landry sucked as a player when he was in the NFL because that is totally how you should judge someone's coaching ability.

He threw for 357 yards and three touchdowns in a Super Bowl loss to the Brady/Belichick Patriots and yet is best remembered for the interceptions, the sacks and the alleged dehydration/exhaustion/nausea that did or didn't get the best of him down the stretch.
You know why its crazy that he is remembered for that? Because that is HOW THE GAME ENDED! Really, all I care about during the Super Bowl is stats, not who WINS the game!

This year, McNabb was McNailed nationally for revealing he didn't know regular-season games could end in a tie.
Holy crap, I hope you get an award for that one.

Only something funny happened on the way to divorce court. McNabb beat the Cardinals, Giants and Browns, ripped the Cowboys in a win-or-else game and threw for 300 yards in a wild-card playoff victory over the Vikings.
It is amazing that he is playing wonderfully and so Philadelphians are loving him. Why don't they hate him like Philadelphians are supposed to?

Moral of the story, Mr O'Connor or is it Dr O'Connor, is that you are a poor story teller. You picked what could have been a great story (the longest tenured Philadelphia athlete), but instead you ruined it.