New Philly.com FanDuel Fantasy Sports Gambling Website

Philly.com, the home of the Philadelphia Inquirer and Philadelphia Daily News and the main place Delaware Valley residents go for their sports news has new website up and running called fanduel.philly.com.

Deposit amounts: Free (Practice Games only) - $10 +$5 Bonus - $25 +$10 - $100 + $20
You can withdraw your winnings (or leftovers) at any time.

You bet $5 to win $9. Meaning in a Head-to-Head game, you and one other person put in $5, meaning there is $10 on the game.  The winner of the game gets 90% of the amount bet, or $9. The House (Philly.com and/or FanDuel.com) gets 10% of the amount gambled, or $1.  The reason this is legal is because it's fantasy sports and fantasy sports are considered gambling because they require skill.

Right now there are MLB, NHL, and NBA games. Each game takes only 1 day to play. Only stats from one day of play is counted.  Here are the rules for MLB:

Pick a team of 9 players from the following games:
TEX @ CLE 9:05am PDT
ANA @ NYY 4:05pm PDT
MIL @ CHC 11:20am PDT
BOS @ MIN 10:10am PDT
HOU @ STL 10:40am PDT
NYM @ COL 12:10pm PDT
ARI @ LOS 7:10pm PDT
WAS @ PHI 12:05pm PDT
ATL @ SDP 3:35pm PDT
CWS @ TOR 4:07pm PDT
CIN @ FLA 4:10pm PDT
BAL @ OAK 7:05pm PDT
If your team scores more fantasy points than your opponent's, you win!
Each player has a salary, and you only have $35k to spend.
You must pick the following positions: P, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF
The game starts at Tomorrow 9:05am PDT so enter before then.

There are 12 games tomorrow and this list includes all 12 games.  You have to pick 9 players, 1 at each position.  You have to set your roster before the first game of the day starts. If your roster scores more fantasy points than the other guy you win.  You have a salary cap of $35,000, which comes out to $3,889 per player.
Here is the most expensive player at each position.
P: Roy Halladay - 9,700
C: Joe Mauer - 4,000
1B: Albert Pujols - 3,900
2B: Chase Utley - 4,000
SS: Hanley Ramirez - 3,900
3B: Placido Polanco - 3,700
LF: Matt Holliday - 3,900
CF: Vernon Wells - 3,700
RF: Nelson Cruz - 4,100
This team's salary would add up to 40,900. So, you'd have you figure out how to save 5,900 somehow.  It seems that the salaries are based off season expectations, reputations, season stats, and match-ups. I definitely haven't analyzed it much, but not sure why the starting pitchers for tomorrow aren't the most expensive.  There's plenty of question marks on the prices, but I'm assuming they have some system to figure that out.

I guess the real question mark is can you pick your team better than the other person?

The other version is an Autopick draft version, where you rank your players and then the computer picks players in a snake order. You still need 1 player at each position in this case.

You can also do 5 or 10 player leagues in each sport.  For this situation it appears to only be salary cap and not autopick draft.  For these leagues, only the winner wins money, still 90% of the total bet, so $22.50 for $5 bet and $45 for $10 bet.

According to the leaderboard on the site, "kaiseroll13" has won 321 games already and has winnings of $5,364.

I find this fascinating that you can bet on DAILY fantasy baseball. Opening Monday to Closing Sunday minus 3 days for All-Star break is 178 days.  Assuming you always picked the right team and the crappy opponent, even with betting only $5 a day you could win $712 over the course of a season.

I haven't gone through the deposit system so I don't quite understand the Bonus deposit amounts yet.  If you can deposit $10 and get $5 in return, could you take out $15 then?  Assuming they've had that figured out, what about the percentage of bonus you get. 10-5, 25-10, 100-20 doesn't make sense.  The less you deposit the larger percentage bonus you get. Donate $100 and your balance would be $120, but donate $10 10 times and your balance would be $150.

Let me know your thoughts in the comments. Thanks to Chad Millman and his blog for the tip.

First Game of the Year

I went to the game last Thursday, down in DC. I understand that for the first 2 games of the series the crowd was more Phillies fans than Nationals fans.  In terms of loudness, Philly fans may have won, but in numbers there were probably more Nats fans for this 4:30pm start time game.  The weather was supposed to be bad, but it ended up being great and it didn't rain until probably 45 minutes after the game had ended.  Snuck down way lower than we were supposed to be sitting and greatly enjoyed the game, despite the fact that the Phillies lost.  Kyle Kendrick didn't look to good and the hitting wasn't the same as it had been the other games so far this season, but overall nothing too bad to complain about.  Congrats to the Nationals on their first win of the season and you could tell the fans were desperate for it, they actually got louder than the Phillies fan after the final out of the game.  Good luck to them and I hope they do better than the Mets and beat up on the rest of the NL East.  I won't be back in Philly until at least late May so this was one of my few opportunities to see the Phils in action.  Now its time to catch some cheap Orioles games.

2010 MLB Player Prop Bets - Using Fangraph's Projections

FanGraphs.com has a large amount of stats from the past and present.  It also has projections from various sources for the 2010 season.  Many have been using these projections to talk about the season many fantasy players will have or how teams will do.  One of the projection systems used is called the "CHONE" projection system, which is done by Sean Smith.  It is a respected system that has been around for a few years.  Another new system this year is the "Fans" system, whereby users of the site were able to submit their expectations for the season.  The system will test out the theory that the average of the group will be closest to the right answer.  There are plenty of objections and things possibly wrong with it, but it is still interesting to explore.  For example of all the projections, look at this page for the Chase Utley stats and projections.
I want to look at possible prop bets for the 2010 season and see if these projection systems point out any worthwhile bets.  I took the prop bets from SportsBook.com and put them into excel with the projections to compare the predictions.  There are two separate sheets in the file, one for pitcher prop bets and one for hitter prop bets. There are 3 main stats I'm including:
"Sportsbook Amount" - which is the Over/Under amount for each prop bet.
"Chone Projection" - which is the amount the Chone system predicts.
"Fan Projection" - which is the amount the Fan system predicts.
I took the average of the Chone and Fan systems, which may or may not be useful since most of the fan predictions seem to be a bit high.
Finally, the other columns are percentage differences between each category.
I sorted the column by the largest percent difference between the Prop amount and the average amount.

Sweet 16 Betting Lines

All the Thursday games.
(1) Syracuse vs (5) Butler - 7:07pm
(2) West Virginia vs (11) Washington - 7:27pm
(2) Kansas State vs (6) Xavier - 9:37pm
(1) Kentucky vs (12) Cornell - 9:57pm

All the Friday Game
(2) Ohio State vs (6) Tennessee - 7:07pm
(3) Baylor vs (10) St. Mary's - 7:27pm
(5) Michigan State vs (9) Northern Iowa - 9:37pm
(1) Duke vs (4) Purdue - 9:57pm


The second set of games each day will probably start later than above, but the first games will start at the time listed. Get your bets in on time.

Let's look at the lines:
Spread - Favorite Team (Avg PPG) (Moneyline) - Underdog (Avg PPG) (Moneyline) - Total - Notes about NCAA tournament
6 - Syracuse (81.6) (-270) vs Butler (69.8) (+230) - 138.5 - Syracuse ATS W both games
4 - West Virginia (72.9) (-190) vs Washington (79.9) (+165) - 142 - WVU ATS W and Total Under both games.
4.5 - Kansas State (79.8) (-220) vs Xavier (79.3) (+180) - 153.5 - KState ATS W and Total Under both games.
8.5 - Kentucky (80.1) (-500) vs Cornell (75.8) (+400) - 147 - Kent ATS W and Total Over both games
4.5 - Ohio State (74.1) (-210) vs Tennessee (73.6) (+175) - 134 -
4.5 - Baylor (77.3) (-200) vs St. Mary's (79.4) (+170) -145 -
1 - Michigan State (72.9) (N/A) vs Northern Iowa (63.6) (N/A) - 121 - 
8 - Duke (77.6) (-410) vs Purdue (70.9) (+325) - 129.5 -  Duke ATS W and Total Under both games

More info:
-If you like Cornell, bet early. The line started higher and is climbing down. The public is jumping on Cornell's bandwagon.  Most expect Kentucky to win this game and Cornell to cover.
-The WVU line will change tomorrow with news of Truck Byrant's broken ankle and for good reason.  Many have pointed to WVU not having a great true point guard and now they'll be saying even more about that.  But as the John gasaway at Basketball Prospectus have mentioned, it hasn't affected WVU and they control the ball well.  If you still believe WVU will stay true to that then wait because the line is going to get smaller.
-Yes, Kalin Lucas is definitely out and yes that matters. You decide how much it matters, the guys making the lines have thought about this, you're not tricking them.
-Don't try to tease anything. If you don't like the spread, then take the moneyline. Play single games by themselves.

For all your stats needs, go here: statsheet.com/mcb
For all your betting line trends, go here: covers.com (click around there, lots of interesting info)
To make all your bets...well that's illegal, check out covers.com to see where to bet.

What my choices are right now:
-Syracuse is going to the next round, not sure about the points. Go with a moneyline bet now in case the spread gets larger and if the spread gets smaller cancel your moneyline bet and go with the spread.
-WVU with the spread, but wait for the spread to go down some because of the injury.
-Take the points with Cornell (or the moneyline) just to make watching the game more fun (No don't do that, that's a bad reason to make a bet).
-I don't know which way the OSU-Tenn line will go, but I like OSU to win. Not sure if they will cover though.
-Give Tom Izzo a week to figure out how to gather his team without Kalin Lucas.  Will that be enough?
-Duke looks to advance and so the line will probably increase as the country believes that.
-If you think Purdue can hang with Duke, then pick the Over, otherwise if it is a blowout by Duke then I think it'll be better to go with the Under because that'll mean Purdue isn't scoring.

What bets are you making? Put it in the comments.

Philadelphia Union Inaguaral Season 2010

I don't know much about the MLS, but I am now interested because of the Philadelphia Union.  They Union will be playing their home games in Chester, PA, not far from my home.  The combination of cheap tickets, nearby location, and soccer played in our time zone makes me think I will be a fan of this team.  I don't much about soccer players so I won't comment on any predictions for the team.

Having lived near Chester most of my life though I have some doubts that the stadium and infrastructure within and around it will be fully prepared for the season.  I wish no injuries, robberies, or poor service to anyone, but I do hope all fans and the city is preparing for the situation.
The stadium holds up to 18,500 for soccer games. There is also a $500 million waterfront revitalization project called "KickStart Chester".

The first game is this Thursday, March 25th at Seattle Sounders on ESPN2 at 9:30pm.
The home opener is Saturday, April 10 against DC United at The Linc at 6:00pm.
The first home game in Chester is expected to be Sunday, June 27 at 5:00pm against Seattle Sounders.
Here is the full schedule.

Also, check out the team's Facebook page. It has been full of a lot of useful information since the team's inception.

Sports Illustrated Steve Davis predicts the Union to finish last (8th) in the Eastern Conference and says to expect "some lumps along the way" as the Union build up with talented youth.

I'm not sure where the best place will be to stay up to date with the team will be, but Philly.com isn't a bad idea.  I imagine they will have the best "traditional" coverage.
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/soccer/

As for blogs, I don't know of any specific blog that plans to cover the Union in depth, so let me know if there are any and I will list them here. Otherwise don't forget to check out these guys:
The 700 Level
Phinally Philly
Goal.com

edit: found some more info
Just found a much better preview for the team at Goal.com.MLS 2010 Team Preview: Philadelphia Union 
That preview highlights the possible starting lineup, gives some info about many of the players and the coach, and also says the team has a chance to sneak into the playoffs.  Read it as you are wondering who each of the players are. 

Underclassmen Knock-outs

Stolen from the bottom of Andy Katz's Daily Word:

So from the teams that have lost, who has to make decisions about leaving for the NBA or at least testing the draft for a week?

Kansas: Cole Aldrich and Xavier Henry.

Georgetown: Greg Monroe

Georgia Tech: Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors.

Gonzaga: Elias Harris.

Florida State: Solomon Alabi.

UTEP: Derrick Caracter.

BYU: Jimmer Fredette

Texas: Avery Bradley and Jordan Hamilton.

These guys all lost and so they don't have any more opportunities to show themselves to scouts. Let's see what Chad Ford says about these guys.
Favors: "Is he raw? Sure. But if he had a point guard who could get him the ball, he would dominate."
Monroe: "those who question Monroe's heartbeat just got more ammunition. He's too content to blend when he needs to carry...His draft stock is as high as it's going to get."
Fredette: "His first game had shades of Stephen Curry at Davidson two years ago. But Kansas State slowed him down considerably in the second round. More damning was Fredette's defense, or lack thereof. Some NBA scouts see him as a late first-round pick. I think late second round is more realistic."
Harris: "if he declares, I think he secured himself a first-round pick with this tournament performance."

From the rankings:
Name (class) - Draft Position
Aldrich (junior) - Top 10
Henry (freshman) - Late lottery to mid first round
Monroe (sophomore) - Lottery
Lawal (junior) - Late first to early second
Favors (freshman) - Top 5
Harris (freshman) - Mid to late first round
Alabi (sophomore) - Late lottery to mid first round
Caracter (junior) - Second round to undrafted
Fredette (junior) - Second round to undrafted
Bradley (freshman) - Late lottery to mid first round
Hamilton (freshman) - Late first to early second

These rankings are likely not updated in a few weeks so this is where they were before.  If you think any of them have changed greatly post it in the comments.

The general rule of thumb is don't go pro unless you know you'll get drafted in the first round.  If any of them stay it would be a huge benefit to their teams for next year, but wait and listen.

Villanova's Future

Villanova lost yesterday to St. Mary's in the Second Round.  The Wildcats had been struggling for weeks and their problems finally caught up to them in an elimination game.  I thought that the scare against Robert Morris in the First Round might energize them to fix their problems and get it together.  But it didn't happen.  And while for Nova's sake Kansas lost yesterday as well, taking the national spotlight away from them.  The spotlight is still very much on them though in Philadelphia. Temple lost to Cornell, but Cornell is a very excellent team and Temple had a great season winning the A-10 tournament.  Expectations are higher for Villanova and Scottie Reynolds ended his career in a manner no one would have predicted if you asked them at the start of the season.

Villanova will lose Scottie Reynolds and Reggie Redding, two great players that contributed a lot to the Wildcats.  In a future post though I'll highlight why I think Villanova will be even better next year.

Hint: Corey and big men.

For now enjoy the tournament and root for the team of your choosing. Enjoy the John Wall show while it lasts.  I'll be rooting for Ohio State and West Virginia.

Bye Bye Kansas

Haven't posted much recently (check out my twitter, always active there), but my last post was praising the Kansas Jayhawks who yesterday were knocked out of the tournament.  It was an amazing game, Sherron Collins really had a tough day and Kansas just wasn't scoring like they are used to.  Check out the roster breakdown I posted and you'll see that despite losing a few guys to the NBA and graduation Kansas will still be good next year.